The conflict between the US and Russia over Georgia’s unilateral attack on South Ossetia has once again brought to the forefront the global balance of power. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 was considered by liberals as a landmark event in history, thinkers such as Francis Fukuyama toured the world with his book ‘The End of History and the Last Man,’ explaining to anyone who would listen that the world had reached a point where there was no longer any meaningful dispute between Marxism and the market. More particularly, he said, it looked as though Western liberal democracy was becoming ‘the final form of human government.’ For liberals the victory of the US as the dominant Capitalist nation over the Soviet Union who represented communism symbolised Capitalisms superiority. Ever since, the US has strengthened its position as the worlds superpower, the Neoconservatives at the turn of the 21st century created the ‘Project for the New American Century,’ in order to ensure global US supremacy into the foreseeable future.
International Situation
The global balance of power or the international situation is the structure of the international relations between the world’s nations. It is the status of the superpower and the nations that compete with it. Understanding the global balance of power apart from knowing the nations who are the world’s powers, their policies and aims requires the knowledge of international relations, which is the constant competition between the world’s powers over the position of the superpower. This is why the international situation is not stable; it goes through many changes. Hence any analysis of the global balance of power is a description of a particular point in time, when the international situation changes such an analysis becomes part of history.
The international situation will always be in a state of flux because it is determined by the political-economic situation of some states from one circumstance to another. Such change of situations and circumstances is either because a nation became stronger or weaker, or because its relations with other states became stronger or weaker. In such a case, a change in global balance of power would result due to change in the balance of powers existent in the world. This is why understanding the status of each state that has influence on the international situation is the basis for understanding the global balance of power.
Competition between the world powers is something that has existed from the beginning of time and will continue until the day of judgement. In ancient times Egypt under the pharaohs was the super power and Mesopotamia competed with it. The Roman Empire became the superpower and the Persian Empire competed with it. The Khilafah then defeated the remnants of the Persian and Byzantine empires and was the world’s superpower until the 18th century facing challenges from the Mongols and the crusaders during this time. France and England then competed with the Uthmani Khilafah for nearly three centuries until the mid-18th century. On the eve of WW1 Germany shifted the global balance of power, whilst France and Britain competed with it. After WW1 Britain emerged as the worlds power and France competed with it. Germany once again challenged Britain as the world’s superpower and only WW2 stopped German hegemony. The US emerged the world’s superpower after WW2 and was challenged by the Soviet Union for five decades until its collapse in 1990.
‘Game of nations’
Currently the US is the world’s superpower, although faltering it still has the greatest influence around the world on international politics. The US is the world’s largest economy by far and the most advanced nation technologically, it maintains military bases across the world in order to protect its interests.
America however is slowly bleeding to death from two open wounds in Iraq and Afghanistan that show no signs of abating. Both wars have now lasted longer then WW2. The US army, the most technologically advanced in history has been unable to defeat essentially a bunch of rag tags using weapons developed in the 1960’s. As a result the US has to rely on regional nations to avoid embarrassment. The US is facing numerous challenges in the different regions of the world which only a decade ago it completely dominated. In the Middle East apart from needing the help of regional surrogates the Middle East is gradually shifting from being a uni-polar region in which the US enjoys uncontested hegemony to a multi-polar region. The US is facing more competition from China and Russia over access to Middle East oil. The US is now increasingly competing with India and Japan as well as the European Union for the lion’s share of the regions black gold. Britain has also managed to foil American projects under the guise of partnership and co-operation. Graham Fuller former vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council described America’s predicament when he wrote in the issue of the National Interest, “diverse countries have deployed a multiplicity of strategies and tactics designed to weaken, divert, alter, complicate, limit delay or block the Bush agenda through death by a thousand cuts.”
The US is beginning to lose its grip in Africa after enjoying uncontested hegemony for decades; it is losing its grip to Britain and China. Britain under Tony Blair’s tenure thwarted America’s bid to oust President Kabbah of Sierra Leone and worked diligently to rescue Gaddafi’s government from clutches of American neoconservatives who after September 11 wanted regime change in Libya. In Sudan the US has been unable to separate Southern Sudan due to the Darfur crisis which has been used by France and Britain to interfere in Sudan. In South Africa Blair competed tirelessly with the US to protect British influence there and made the country the mainstay of anti-government activities in neighbouring African countries. The US is also facing the prospect of being left out to dry as China has taken leadership on African development by completing over 100 deals, worth over $20 billion, to secure a stable supply of oil.
Russia and China are rapidly developing without following the example of Western liberal democracy. However, it is Russia, which over the last year has opted to openly challenge the West as well as the US at practically every turn, whether by planting a flag on the seabed beneath the Arctic icecap, testing the massive ordnance air blast bomb or disputing the sitting of US early-warning defence systems in eastern Europe. Russia has begun re-inventing itself as a regional power, after winning back Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan from American grip and managing to stop the influence of the three revolutions in central Asia. The US after nearly 20 years of having no rival is now facing the grim prospect of a challenge from a nation with the world’s largest gas reserves and substantial oil reserves.
The nations that are able to compete with the US are Russia, Britain, France and Germany; all four nations have international ambitions across the world. Russia in the last decade has managed to gain control over its mineral resources and utilities and banished many oligarchs who benefited from the break-up of the Soviet Union. With some of the worlds largest energy reserves it is now developing a state of the art military and competing directly with the US in regions where the US for nearly a decade had uncontested hegemony.
Britain historically has been a world power and still has influence in its former colonies. Britain is a key player in Europe and has frustrated many US plans. WW2 consumed Britain to such an extent that it weakened its international standing; British policy makers eventually accepted Britain’s weakness and developed a policy of preservation rather then direct competition with the US. Britain has achieved this by keeping one foot with the US – cooperating with it across the world. Whilst at the same time it has kept one foot in Europe aiming to frustrate US dominance. France like Britain has been a key player in European history and politics, its policies for decades has been centred on creating influence across the world through its colonies, French culture and through its economic strength. Politically France dominants the European Union and has used it as a tool to further French interests. With Nicolas Sarkozy taking over the helm in France he has furthered French interests abroad by establishing military bases in the Gulf and cooperating with the US in Lebanon and the Russia-Georgia conflict.
Germany is the third largest in economy in the world at $2.7 trillion and an economic powerhouse in Europe. In 2004 it was the world’s largest exporter at $912 billion. Germany today is expanding economically through a distinct set of economic policies with a virtual hegemony in the regions of Eastern Europe. Germany played an active role in the successful mediation in the issue of exchanging prisoners between Israel and Hezbollah. Germany also deployed a naval force in the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 2006. Its deployment consisted of two frigates – the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Karlsruhe – supported by helicopters, supply ships and patrol boats, with about 1,500 men on board. This is Germany’s largest military deployment since WW2. However Germany’s problem lies in the fact that it views the world from a European Union perspective, whilst Brittan and France view the EU as a tool to achieve their national interests.
Emerging Powers
After the nations that directly compete with the US across the world, China has the most influence however it remains currently a regional power. Had China not been narrow in its international ambitions, focusing only on its region it would have competed with the world’s powers. However this situation is very likely to change in the future. Japan is an economic power with the largest economy in the world after the US; however outside the economic sphere it has no influence. Its current policy of taking part in the coalition in Afghanistan and the removal of article 9 in its pacifist constitution allowing it to deploy troops and develop nuclear weapons, is the US attempting to counter balance Chinese influence in the region. Japanese influence actually proves US dominance, rather then Japanese development. After the great powers there are some nations that have influence in some circumstances on specific issues due to their history or location, but this has been temporary. India has a large population and posses nuclear weapons and has the potential in the future to influence its region, currently it is well down the list of global powers although the media tends to give the nation much more status then it deserves. Italy has some influence in the world, it was once a power prior to WW2 but this was temporary.
Conclusion
This is the global balance of power currently, which is liable to change at any time, understanding the histories of these states, how they developed, their beliefs and values as well as the ideologies they have embraced would give one an understanding of the motives of these individual states. These nations all compete with each other globally as well as with the superpower the US. This international situation can be understood very clearly as the global situation is the competition between the worlds powers to achieve their interests.
It should also be remembered that the state of affairs in any nation in the world does not remain the same; it goes through many changes, in terms of strength and weakness, power of influence or its absence, and in terms of difference and change in its foreign relations with other nations. This is why it is impossible to draw a constant framework or a set of guidelines to view the international situation as the international situation is always in a state of flux. However an analysis of the international situation at any given time is possible bearing in mind it is liable for change. It is also possible to analyze the strength of the powers in the world bearing in mind such an assessment is liable for change.
The debacle of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars has severely dented US prowess around the world, the US after being invincible for the past decade has been exposed of being ever more reliant upon others and is drowning at the same time in a sea of misery domestically. A more resurgent Russia posses a direct challenge to the US, with its energy reserves it can hold Europe to ransom. China on the other hand remains contained in its region although it has shown some signs of competing with the US, as it has done in Africa, however China has no history to refer to or an ideology to give it a framework to achieve global dominance – China has never been a superpower. India represents little challenge to any nation on Earth; it is still dogged by Hindu nationalists who are pulling the nation in one direction whilst an elite middle class who love anything Western pull it in another direction.
US think-tanks and policy makers in the Western world have continued to cite the continued demand for Shari’ah in the Muslim world as a medium to long term challenge the US will face. US national intelligence estimates have predicted the emergence of the Khilafah by 2020. The war on terror has been long exposed as a war on Islam and whilst the Islamic world is not represented by the Khilafah currently, its potential emergence represents a potential threat to the world’s powers and has lead them to engage in an ideological battle for the hearts and minds of Muslims across the world.