Africa

Libya: An Uncertain Future

The people of Libya headed to the polls on July 7 in the countries first election in recent history and since the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi. The election was for the selection of a prime minister, Cabinet and a constituent authority that will be tasked with drafting a new constitution.

In the aftermath of the downfall of Gaddafi and his regime, Libya lacked any centralised political authority. The country is still struggling to recover from the month’s long war against Gaddafi, and neither the National Transitional Council (NTC) nor the transitional government it formed in November 2011 ever constituted a true, legitimized authority. Power remains in the hands of the armed militias, and none of those are strong enough on their own to begin acting as a national military force. The international community has long viewed the NTC as the embryo of the future Libyan state. Media reports have described how the technocratic interim administration is currently negotiating contracts with western companies.

Since November 2011 the NTC counted among its challenges the most basic task of state formation: establishing internal security. The formation of the Libyan National Army was supposed to be the centrepiece of the NTC’s push to accomplish this task, but so far, all attempts at threatening the militias into subservience have accomplished next to nothing.

An election law in January 2012 made it ineligible to for the ruling National Transitional Council to participate in the future government and thus the future government will contain neither Gadhafi-era politicians nor transitional council members, who have kept a tenuous hold on Libya’s simmering regional power centres.

Whilst the west intervened to oust Gaddafi, after his departure in 2011, the West abandoned Libya like they abandoned Afghanistan after the Soviet defeat in 1989. Libya is now controlled by a network of armed militias, with many representing powerful tribes. The weakness of central government means they operate with impunity.

Political regionalisation

Under Gaddafi Libya was ruled from Tripoli, however the population were effectively divided and ruled from an administrative perspective as three regions, Tripolitania in the West, the eastern province of Cyrenaica and the southern region of Fezzan. Virtually no infrastructure was developed to link them, keeping them divided was Gaddafi’s strategy.

The downfall of Gaddafi was initially driven from the East in Benghazi, which spread across to the West of the country. Many tribes, clans and militias worked in a decentralised manner to oust Gaddafi. Ever since though a weak central government has been unable to unite the country or carry out even basic functions of government.

Such tribes and clans were neglected and brutally repressed by Gaddafi now have an immense distrust of the NTC. This has been due to the secrecy of its membership, meetings and energy revenue distribution. As a result, every group and region in Libya wants to maintain the de facto semi-autonomy it presently enjoys and will resist attempts by any central authority to rein it in, especially if that means ceding more authority to Tripoli.

The NTC since the removal of Gaddafi has been based out of Tripoli, though many members, especially those from former rebel strongholds such as Benghazi and Misurata, have continued to work from their hometowns. These regional representatives have maintained strong ties to both their communities and local militias, building up their own patronage networks through their positions in the NTC.

Meanwhile, there has been a rise in support for locally elected city councils in former rebel bastions, where Tripoli’s influence and bureaucratic institutions hold little sway. Benghazi’s city council announced in March 2012 that it would take control of the city’s day-to-day administrative issues. Members of the Benghazi city council manage local infrastructure projects and security issues and settle disputes with regional rivals — independent of the NTC and with the support of local militias.

Libya’s largest regional militias are in Zentan, Misurata and Benghazi. The NTC’s security forces have been unable to prevent renegade militia attacks or to convince regional militia leaders to lay down their arms or join the council’s security forces. The al-Awfea Brigade took over the Tripoli Airport on June 4 and held it until the next day, when the NTC negotiated a resolution. Only a few months before, in April, the council had to secure the international airport, which Zentan’s militia had overtaken, and its inner-city airport, Benita, which had fallen under the control of Souq al-Jomaa, a militia that hails from the central Tripoli suburb of the same name.

The failure of central government to present a grand vision to the country has resulted in it being a powerless central authority. As a result much of Libya has turned to local politics to bring a sense of law and order. Whatever result transpires from these elections the West have their eyes on the nations coveted energy resources. Since the fall of Gaddafi the NTC has ruled the country and has failed in uniting the country and creating change from its predecessor.

Whoever emerges victorious in the elections, the following policies need to be pursued:

Constitutional change. Unquestionably Islam unites the overwhelming majority of people in Libya – 99% of the population is Muslim. It is thus natural that a new constitution be based on the Quran and Sunnah. Islam gives a person a new sense of purpose and this is the same for a nation starting anew after 42 years of brutal rule. Only Islam can unite a people divided between those who gained favour from the former regime, clans and regional tribes and the interim leadership which includes professionals’ from Benghazi where the rebellion began.

Representation, accountability and rule of law. The constitution should clearly state the obligation of political parties and the establishment of the Majlis of the Ummah. This mechanism will allow for representation, accountability as well as disagreement in an organised and controlled manner.

Economy, jobs and growth. Libya’s oil reserves belong to the Ummah according to Islam’s rules on the disposal of public properties and should therefore be used to leapfrog its economic development. Libya possesses 46 billion barrels of oil, the 8th largest in the world. This oil wealth should be used to develop an indigenous and diversified manufacturing industry which will create jobs and economic growth.

Independent security/defence. According to Sharia sovereignty does not exist unless a nation can secure its borders and is self-sufficient in this. The various militia rebel groups and armed resistance groups need to be coalesced into coherent standing military force. Western military interference must be removed.

Foreign relations established on bilateral treaties. The West has used agent rulers, military sales, loans and aid as key tools in keeping political and economic influence in the region. Each of these will need to be deconstructed. Bilateral treaties should be pursued in foreign relations for the purposes of pursuing the nation’s interests and dawa following the example of the Prophet صلى الله عليه وسلم when he established the first Islamic State in Madina.