Where do matters currently stand?
After months of stalemate and with over 20,000 sorties flown over Libyan territory by NATO’s air forces, on the night of on the 21 August and in the last ten days of Ramadan rebel fighters launched an offensive on Tripoli, laying siege on the capital with the aim of removing Muammar Gadhafi, once and for all.
Fighters from the Nafusa Mountains advanced towards Tripoli, gained the upper hand in the town of Zawiya west of Tripoli, which is a key point along Gadhafi’s supply line, allowing them choke off supplies to Tripoli. There appears to have been virtually no resistance from Libyan forces loyal to Gaddafi.
Claims came thick and fast regarding the capture of Gaddafi’s sons including Saif ul Islam, which the International Criminal Court (ICC) confirmed when it said it was organising his transfer to the Hague. This was all discredited when on the 23 August Saif al-Islam gave an interview and press conference at the Rixos hotel in Tripoli to foreign journalists.
Currently the rebel fighters with the help of NATO air strikes continue to face stiff resistance from Gaddafi loyalists in pockets of resistance around Tripoli, whilst the Gaddafi family still appears to have alluded capture.
How has months of stalemate turned into quick victory?
Months of fighting between loyalist forces and the rebels resulted in a lengthy stalemate, even with the aid of NATO airstrikes. However the speed with which the rebels entered Tripoli has taken everyone by surprise. A few months is not enough time for a sudden improvement in capabilities and doesn’t account for the rapid advance. Disinformation however has been central to the Libyan conflict by the West. Stratfor outlined this in its analysis: “Profiles of emerging rebel leaders appeared in the Western press, portraying them as liberal and benign and thus, fit to govern. The news coverage posited that these rebels were immune from ICC prosecution, despite their previous careers as leading members of the Gadhafi regime. What was more difficult to hide was the ragtag nature of the rebel forces. For that, leading NATO participants in the war decided to insert special operations forces to arm and train the rebels. These special operation forces propelled the Tripoli-bound offensive forward by eliminating key targets of Gadhafi resistance (while allowing the rebels to take credit). Key to this operation was NATO’s ability to create the perception throughout Libya, and especially within Tripoli, that Gadhafi was backed into a corner and the war was effectively over.”
The Daily Telegraph exposed on the 22 August 2011 the role Britain’s special operation forces and MI6 operatives played in the rapid offensive to Tripoli. MI6 officers based in the rebel stronghold of Benghazi had honed battle plans drawn up by Libya’s Transitional National Council (TNC) which were agreed 10 weeks ago. The constantly-updated tactical advice provided by British experts to the rebel leaders centered on the need to spark a fresh uprising within Tripoli that could be used as the cue for fighters to advance on the city. The Sudden fall of Zawiya, which allowed the quick offensive to Tripoli because the skies overhead had RAF Tornados and Typhoons launching surgical strikes on pre-planned targets. Britain’s RAF carried out 46 sorties on Sunday 21 August alone, relying heavily on the RAF’s Brimstone ground attack missile system that can pick out targets close to civilian areas with incredible accuracy.
It appears from a tactical assessment of the offensive on Tripoli British involvement was central to the fall of Tripoli.
Who is the National Transitional Council (NTC)?
The Libyan uprising consisted of a number of tribes and individuals, some from within the Libyan government who defected, some from the army and many other elements who were long term opponents of the Gaddafi regime. Whilst the revolutions took place in Tunisia and Egypt, eastern Libya known in the pre-independence era as Cyrenaica, and traditionally the heartland of the anti-Gaddafi movement united with other tribes in their opposition to Gaddafi.
By mid February the popular uprising had spread to Tripoli and by the end of February 2011, much of Libya had slipped out of Gaddafi’s control. Eastern Libya, centered around the vital port city of Benghazi, firmly under the control of the opposition become the headquarters of the opposition forces. The Muslims of Libya bravely fought forces loyal to Gaddafi in Benghazi and were able to expel those who did not defect.
It is from this the National Transitional Council (NTC) was established on 27 February 2011 in an effort to consolidate efforts for change in Libya. The NTC coordinated resistance efforts between the different towns held in rebel control, and to give a political face to the opposition to present to the world. Since early March, the eastern-oriented initial 33-member NTC has been serving as Libya’s transitional government.
Mustafah Abdul Hafiz the former justice minister in the Gaddafi regime and Abdul Hafiz Gogha a Benghazi lawyer are considered the original architects of the transitional council, it is now composed by many of those who defected from the Gaddafi regime. The provisional Chairman of the NTC and its governing structure is Mahmoud Jibril, a US educated economist, and former head of Libya’s National Economic Development Council. Jibril has served as the NTC’s foreign minister, shuttling around the world persuading governments to grant formal recognition to the NTC and soliciting economic support for the rebellion.
The NTC started to issue poignant statements about the future foreign relations of a post-Gaddafi Libya. The council even said that those nations that help the uprising – which is France and Britain – would enjoy a privileged relationship with Libya.
France and Britain on one side and the US on the other hand have been working to make contact with the rebels and have competed on this matter to ensure their supporters are in power once Gaddafi falls. However this competition between Europe led by Britain and America has taken place without it spilling out of control.
What is the post Gaddafi setup most likely to be?
The National Transitional Council is composed f various tribes, groups and individuals who are all united on one matter, and on one matter only – Gaddafi has to be removed. After this there is little that unites the different groups who are all vying for power. These fault lines have all the possibility of becoming deeper as the weeks go by. These rebels have in essence fought independently on different fronts during the war with varying degrees of success. The different roles these groups have played and, more important, their perceptions of those roles will likely create friction when it comes time to allocate the spoils of the Libyan war. Similar examples such as Afghanistan and Somalia where fractured alliances led to the overthrow of the existing regime which however fell apart afterwards due to the internal fault lines being seized by outside powers, who then worked to manipulate one of the factions in order to gain influence in the country.
Once Gaddafi is removed, the dependency on West to remove him means countries such as France, Britain and the US will have a say in who will run Libya. The differences between Europe and America is in who runs the country not the fact that should they have a say.
Comments by both London and Paris since the fall of Tripoli of peacekeeping forces remaining after the fall of Libya is an ominous sign that Western interference is here to stay.
What is the international aspect to Libya?
Libya, like North Africa and the Middle East forms part of Europe’s attempts to reduce energy dependency from Russian energy. In a European Union report: ‘The European Union’s Energy Security Challenges,’ it highlighted: “EU efforts to diversify European energy supplies and decrease dependence on Russia have heightened calls within Europe for stronger political and economic engagement in the Middle East and North Africa…. The potential for growth in Europe’s energy diversification strategy with respect to the Middle East and North Africa is significant. Nevertheless, as with the Caspian region, if the EU is serious about lowering its dependency on any one source, it must turn more and more to the Middle East and North Africa.”
The US has viewed the instability in Libya as an opportunity to gain influence in the country. It made use of Europe’s inability to go it alone in removing Gaddafi to steal Libya from Europe and Britain. However the US has played a weak hand in Libya due to having little influence in Libya as it has traditionally been European territory. Ever since, the US has worked to undermine European efforts to bring a swift conclusion to the war.
GOP senators have constantly criticized Obama’s handling of the Libyan uprising: “Americans can be proud of the role our country has played … but we regret that this success was so long in coming due to the failure of the United States to employ the full weight of our airpower.”
A senior European official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to the Washington Post and to avoid antagonizing the Americans, said that Obama’s eagerness to turn over command of the Libyan air operation to NATO in late February and the withdrawal of US fighter planes from ground-strike missions, had undermined the strength of their united front against Gaddafi.
Another commentator described the US role as follows: “By delaying America’s entry into this conflict long enough to allow Qaddafi to recover from the initial shock of the rebellion (but not long enough to go to Congress for authorization for the use of force as Bush did in Iraq), Obama ensured that what might have been a quick and relatively easy campaign was transformed into tough, drawn-out fight. By not committing NATO forces to an all-out attack on the dictator, he may have created the circumstances for a stalemate that may leave Qaddafi in power and the country in ruins, the worst possible outcome imaginable.”
If stopping the killing had been the real aim, Nato states would have backed a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement, rather than repeatedly vetoing both. Instead, after having lost serious strategic ground in the Arab revolutions, the Libyan war offered the US, Britain and France a chance to put themselves at the heart of the process while bringing to heel an unreliable state with the largest oil reserves in Africa.