Headlines:
- George Floyd Death: China takes a Victory Lap over US Protests
- Expect Europe’s Biggest Peacetime Recession in Nearly 100 Years
- Beijing’s Military Adventurism in the Himalayas is Risky
George Floyd Death: China takes a Victory Lap over US Protests
The US mass protests are raising eyebrows around the world, but China is watching with particular interest. As anti-racism protests sweep across the US, Beijing has seized upon them to hit back at Washington for supporting last year’s Hong Kong pro-democracy demonstrations. Chinese state media have given extensive coverage to the protests, highlighting the chaotic scenes and alleged police brutality in America to claim that China enjoys greater social stability. Speaking to an international audience, Chinese diplomats are attempting to portray Beijing as a responsible global leader, standing in solidarity with other countries in condemning the racial disparity and injustice in the US. China’s state news agency Xinhua described the US civil unrest as “Pelosi’s beautiful landscape” – a reference to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s comment last summer that the Hong Kong protests were “a beautiful sight to behold”. State media Global Times’ chief editor Hu Xijin wrote that American politicians now can “enjoy this sight from their own windows”. Beijing has long condemned American politicians, including Ms Pelosi, for “glorifying violence” coming from the Hong Kong demonstrators, who are categorised by China as “rioters showing signs of terrorism”. Protests paralysed Hong Kong for most of last year, prompting Beijing to impose a new national security law in the territory in May, only two weeks ahead of the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown. Chinese and Hong Kong officials have also called out the US for applying “double standards” in its response to civil unrest. “You know there are riots in the United States and we see how local governments reacted,” said Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam. “And then in Hong Kong, when we had similar riots, we saw what position they adopted then.” The officials’ view is shared by many Chinese social media users, who dub America “the double standard nation”. (Source: BBC)
In reality, the regimes in both US and China have oppressed the people, and have to resort to extraordinary tough measures to quell civil disturbances.
Expect Europe’s Biggest Peacetime Recession in Nearly 100 Years
Attempting to forecast the economic effects of the lockdown is truly a fool’s game. Never before have we seen a man-made recession of this scale, nor have we seen policy responses of this magnitude to cushion the impact on people’s livelihood. On balance, however, I expect the biggest peacetime recession in almost 100 years. The initial collapse in economic activity appears to be coming to an end. Depending on the severity of the lockdown in individual countries, preliminary indicators suggest that we are now some 15 to 30 per cent below GDP levels at the beginning of the year. Southern Europe and France have suffered most; northern and central Europe somewhat less — and countries such as Russia and Turkey still less so far, as the virus spread there later. The next three months will see an easing of lockdowns throughout western Europe, first leading to a stabilisation of activity — at very depressed levels — followed by some growth and areas of strong rebound. The biggest risk is a flare-up of new infections as rules are eased, and another round of lockdowns. This would then change the base case of a “Nike logo-shaped” GDP growth trajectory into a “W-shaped” one. Following the bounce off a deep trough, I expect a long, gradual recovery as we learn to live with the virus. Until an effective vaccine becomes widely available it is difficult to imagine a return to normality or to pre-crisis GDP levels. In aggregate, I expect eurozone GDP to contract by about 13 per cent this year. Even though 2021 will probably see impressive growth rates, the GDP level at the end of next year will still be some 4 per cent below the pre-crisis level. Central Europe will probably suffer slightly less and pre-crisis GDP levels could be broadly restored by the end of 2021. While Turkish and Russian GDP will drop by about 5.5 per cent this year, assuming the external financing picture does not deteriorate further, Turkey will probably bounce back stronger in 2021, while Russia will take considerably longer. Once we are through the crisis, I suspect we will have suffered a GDP drop on the same scale as during the 1930s, but followed by a faster and more robust recovery. (Source: ERIK NIELSEN, UNICREDIT’S CHIEF GLOBAL ECONOMIST, Financial Times).
The same monetary and fiscal tools that caused the global economic crisis in the first place will be used to correct it. This will eventually lead to the collapse of the global economy. However, a different standard is required to reset and reshape the global economy. That standard is Islam!
Beijing’s Military Adventurism in the Himalayas is Risky
Last month saw several face-offs between the Indian Army and China’s People’s Liberation Army along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), their long-disputed shared border, high in the Himalayas. While the entanglement in North Sikkim was resolved locally, within the framework of mutually agreed-upon protocols, the ones in Eastern Ladakh have lingered, giving rise to speculation about China’s intentions. The last major stand-off between the Asian giants was at Doklam in 2017, and lasted for 73 days. It was followed by informal meetings between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, first at Wuhan in April 2018 and then at Mamallapuram in Tamil Nadu in October 2019. During those interactions, both leaders reiterated the importance of peace in border areas for greater strategic gains. They also issued guidance to their respective militaries to exercise restraint and strengthen mutual understanding and trust. Facing myriad internal and external challenges during the coronavirus pandemic, China can ill-afford any risky adventurism in the Himalayas. A conflict with India, its main regional strategic competitor, will not only compound its problems but will seriously impede its stated journey towards becoming a global superpower by 2050. Some of the challenges that Xi Jinping faces today include China’s contracting economy, its reignited trade war with the US, the departure of some manufacturing and the slowdown of its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. Hong Kong protests, Taiwan’s intransigence, and the global demand to probe its role in the coronavirus pandemic have also added to its woes. Moreover, barring Pakistan, which is its all-weather strategic partner in the region, Beijing’s assertive behavior coupled with its alleged pandemic-related role has generated anti-China sentiment in Asian countries it assiduously befriended as part of its containment strategy against India. India would do well to leverage this to its advantage. (Source: CNN)
Actually, any conflict between India and China presents Pakistan with an opportunity to liberate Kashmir for good. It is also an opportune moment for Khan to take back Kashmir and overcome a myriad of internal issues hounding his government.