Headlines:
Erdogan Reached Out to the Zionist Entity
Taliban win the Battle but Will They Now Lose the Political Battle
Europe’s Belt and Road Initiative
U.S., Afghanistan, Pakistan Uzbekistan Create Platform for Regional Cooperation
India is Scrambling to Get on the Taliban’s Good Side
China Weighs Risk and Reward in a Taliban-Led Afghanistan

Erdogan Reached Out to the Zionist Entity

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has reached out to his new ‘Israeli’ counterpart, congratulating him for assuming office and underlining the importance of their bilateral relationship. Erdogan spoke to newly-sworn-in ‘Israeli’ President Yitzak Hertzog over the phone on Monday, 12 July. During the call, the Turkish president said he emphasised the important roles ‘Israel’ and Turkey play in ensuring security and stability in the Middle East. The two also spoke about the potential for “high cooperation” in fields of energy, tourism and technology, Erdogan said after the call.  Hertzog acknowledged the call in a tweet later on Monday, saying both heads of state “emphasized that ‘Israeli’-Turkish relations are of great importance for security and stability in the Middle East” and that they “agreed on the continuation of a dialogue in order to improve relations between our countries”. Acknowledging past disagreements, Erdogan said communication between Israel and Turkey should be maintained regardless of any potential disputes in the future. Speaking about Turkey’s relationship with ‘Israel’ in December, Erdogan stressed that the issues lay at the top of government.

Taliban win the Battle but Will They Now Lose the Political Battle

As the Taliban retakes most of Afghanistan its political policies are taking shape and its showing the word how it plans to engage with the surrounding nations and those that have interests in Afghanistan. Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen said: “We welcome them (China). If they have investments of course we ensure their safety. Their safety is very important for us,” speaking to the South China Morning Post Newspaper. “We have been to China many times and we have good relations with them,” he said. “China is a friendly country that we welcome for reconstruction and developing Afghanistan.” The Taliban spokesman also said his group would not allow any “separatist group, including East Turkistan Islamic Movement, from operating in Afghanistan. “Yes, it will not be allowed in. People from other countries who want to use Afghanistan as a site (to launch attacks) against other countries, we have made a commitment that we will not allow them in whether it’s an individual or entity against any country including China. This is our commitment under the Doha Agreement. We are abiding by that agreement.” The Taliban have been very successful on the battlefield, but their politics has always lacked an understanding of the plans of the global powers and their agents such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. The comments about China leave much to be desired, but the Taliban need to ensure they don’t lose on the politicla battlefield after winning on the military battlefield.

Europe’s Belt and Road Initiative

European Union foreign ministers have approved plans to develop a rival global investment strategy to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The newly announced strategy called “Globally Connected Europe”, pushes for investments in visible projects to link Europe to the world from 2022. “It has a broader purpose to put connectivity at the center of our external policy,” the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said during a press conference on Monday, 12 July. “We started to do this two years ago with our agreement with Japan. “But it seems that today is much more important for us to look at the connectivity problems with the broader Middle East and looking forward to Central Asia and China, but not with the same approach and the same purposes that China has with the Belt and Road Initiative.” Better connectivity means diversification of value chains and a reduction of strategic dependencies for the bloc and its partners. The US has for long wanted to counter China’s economic plans by having its allies build their own counter projects.

U.S., Afghanistan, Pakistan Uzbekistan Create Platform for Regional Cooperation

The United States, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan formed a new diplomatic platform to support peace and stability in Afghanistan and foster regional trade and business ties, the State Department said Friday as U.S. troops continue their planned withdrawal from the country. “The parties consider long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan critical to regional connectivity and agree that peace and regional connectivity are mutually reinforcing,” it said in a statement. The parties agreed to meet in coming months. [Source: Reuters]

It is interesting to see both US and China jostling with the Central Asian states to stabilize Afghanistan once the US forces withdraw. However, what is puzzling is Pakistan’s role. Pakistan claims to be China’s friend but in reality is working with the US to address Afghanistan’s security concerns to Central Asian states. China must be anxious about this new diplomatic platform, as it can easily be exploited to export Taliban’s style of militancy into Xinjiang thereby potentially disrupting China’s One Belt One Road project.

India Is Scrambling to Get on the Taliban’s Good Side

India is worried. As the last U.S. troops withdraw from Afghanistan, there is palpable fear in New Delhi that the return of the Taliban to power might mean the return of Pakistan-funded jihadi groups that have a history of attacking India. The growing possibility that Indian troops might be called on to enter Afghanistan sparks the greatest fear of all. The Indian government is not alone. Russia, Iran, and China are also worried about spillover from an extended Afghan civil war, including a large-scale refugee crisis. India, however, is in the most disadvantageous position. While Russia, China, and Iran started talking to the Taliban years ago, to be better able to address their concerns directly with the group if it returned to power, India stuck to its principled opposition to the group and stood by its allies in the Afghan government. Now, as a civil war in Afghanistan seems imminent and even Indian experts agree that the Afghan government’s writ will be limited to urban centers, New Delhi has reportedly been scrambling to send reconciliatory messages to the Taliban—messages that have thus far gone unanswered. The Afghan government, meanwhile, is none too pleased with the reports and is appealing for India to provide more support at its hour of need. [Source: Foreign Policy]

There are two major reasons India fears a Taliban takeover of Kabul. First, historically Afghanistan has served as a conduit for Afghan dynasties to launch Jihad into India and capture significant territory. Ghazni, Ghauri and Durrani sultanates have left an indelible fear on the Hindu elite, which continues to the present day. Second, the return of Taliban means the return of Pakistan’s strategic depth, which forces India’s military planners to rethink warfare between India and Pakistan.

China Weighs Risk and Reward in a Taliban-Led Afghanistan

The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and seemingly unstoppable march of the Taliban opens a strategic door to China that is laden with both risk and opportunity. China abhors a power vacuum, especially on its borders, and maintaining stability after decades of war in its western neighbour will be Beijing’s paramount consideration. But if stability requires a Taliban-dominated government, an equal concern would be the support such an administration might provide to Muslim separatists in China’s Xinjiang region. “For China, the risk does not come from who holds the power in Afghanistan, but from the risk of persistent instability,” Fan Hongda, a Middle East specialist at the Shanghai International Studies University, told AFP. Afghanistan shares only a small 76-kilometre (47-mile) border with China, at high altitude and without a road crossing point. But the frontier is a big concern because it runs alongside Xinjiang, and Beijing fears its neighbour being used as a staging ground for Uyghur separatists from the sensitive region. “China can deal with the Taliban… but they still find the Taliban’s religious agenda and motivations inherently discomforting,” said Andrew Small, author of The China–Pakistan Axis. [Source: France 24]

The return of the Taliban has shaken great and regional powers alike. America, Russia, China and India constantly fret about Taliban victory. Can one imagine what would happen if Pakistan annexed Afghanistan and declared the establishment of the rightly guided Caliphate? In a short span of time, the Caliphate would expand into Central Asia thereby eliminating American, Russian and Chinese primacy. The nascent Islamic state would be too much for India and Iran, and will be able to project power into the heart of the Middle East.  The Messenger of Allah (saw) said, «لتخرجن من خراسان راية سوداء حتى تربط خيولها بهذا الزيتون الذي بين بيت لهيا وحرستا»“Surely black flags will appear from the Khorasan until the people (under the leadership of this flag) will tie their horses with the olive trees between Bait-e-Lahya and Harasta (names of places in Jerusalem).” [Nuaim Ibn Hammad in Kitab Al-Fitan].