Europe

Turkey’s Upcoming Election

The 21st century has been a tumultuous period for Turkey. It has seen the rise of the AKP party led by former mayor of Istanbul Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who has attempted to undertake far reaching reforms which has led him to conflict directly with the army, who for long have seen themselves as the defenders of everything secular in Turkey. This week is the final week of campaigning for national elections which are to take place on Sunday 12th June.

The result in reality is a forgone conclusion, the question is how big the AKP’s majority will be?

In Strategic Estimate 2011, Khilafah.com’s annual assessment of the global trends, we concluded:

…….If the AKP is able to increase its members in the national assembly this will make it much easier to pass far reaching reforms which will remove the armies hold on the nation and weaken the secular hold of Turkey. The army has traditionally undertaken a coup when its position was under threat but the grip of the AKP over the national assembly and victory in two referendums have made this option difficult. In June 2011 the struggle over Turkey will reach a critical phase, the outcome will have major global implications……In 2011 and beyond Turkey’s role will only grow in importance. Turkey has played an important role in the formation of the political process in Iraq and will continue to mediate in the Caucuses and the Middle East. Currently Turkish assertiveness has not conflicted with the US or its Western allies. How Turkey responds when they do, will be very telling on whether Turkey is an independent power on a path of ascendancy or a power that will play the role of patron for other powers.

With the AKP party very likely to be in power come Monday 13th June, we analyse the key issues Turkey faces and how the AKP party is attempting to solve them. There are 5 key areas that are dominating Turkey currently: domestic Politics, the Caucuses, Middle East, Iraq and Energy.

Domestic Politics

Ever since Abdullah Gul and Recep Tayyip Erdogan left the Virtue party and formed the Justice and Development Party, they both began cementing ties with America. Whilst many reforms have been introduced to break the armies hold on power the centrepiece of the AKP’s strategy was the ‘Shared Vision Document’ signed between the Turkish and American government by Abdulla Gul and Condoleezza Rice on 5th July 2006.

This has led to the AKP government to directly conflict with the army. Erdogan has worked to alter the balance of power in Turkey, one of his earliest actions was to curtail the jurisdiction of the National Security Council to interfere in government. Erdogan altered the composition of this council to include civilian members. The National Security Council comprises the Chief of Staff, select members of the Council of Ministers and the President of the Republic – who is also the Commander-in-chief. Like other National Security Councils it develops national security policy.

The AKP worked to weaken the army’s hold on Turkey and worked to expand the government’s penetration of the National Security Council. In the name of democratisation the ruling justice and development party (AKP) has been pushing through reforms.

In 2007 massive demonstrations took place as the army once again saw secularism was under threat with Erdogan possibly standing for the post of president – a post regarded as the guardian of the country’s secular system. The AKP party in the end put forward its foreign minister Abdullah Gul. This stand-off turned the elections into a political crisis. The election result was declared void by the constitutional court on the grounds that a quorum of two-thirds was necessary and was not reached due to a boycott by opposition parties. The AKP party then called a snap parliamentary election which was held in July 2007. The general elections saw it returned to government with a larger proportion of the vote.

On September 12th 2010 78% of the Turkish electorate voted for constitutional reforms in a referendum. The referendum resulted in 58% of the public voting for the reforms and 48% against.

If the AKP party is able to increase its majority in the June 2011 elections than it will be able to with relative ease pass further amendments strengthening its position whilst weakening the army.

Caucuses

Turkey under the Uthmani Khilafah fought and lost a number of wars in the 18th and 19th centuries which led to the Ottoman’s to cede territory to Russia. The collapse of the Ottoman Khilafah in 1924 led to a number of incidents with Armenia – which have come to be known as the Armenian massacre. This defined the hostile relations between the Caucasian nations and Turkey. Today both Russia and Turkey are working to gain a foothold in the region.

Turkey is currently in the middle of a lengthy process to normalise relations with Armenia. Normalising ties includes the opening of the shared border. The talks have gone through a number of summits and discussions, which has produced protocols both nations have signed. The protocols however remain stuck in both Turkish and Armenian parliaments due to the resistance in both nations by anti-AKP elements. The outcome of such negotiations is intrinsically linked to Azerbaijan who wants the Nagorno-Karabakh territory to be resolved under any agreement between Armenia and Turkey.

The Nagorno-Karabakh territory was given independence in the dying days of the Soviet Union. It is a territory that both Armenia and Azerbaijan lay claim to. The territory continues to plague relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan as both have gone to war on a number of occasions over the territory. Currently negotiations are taking place between Azerbaijan and Armenia mediated by Russia. Russia’s resurgence has meant that it is expanding into the Caucuses again and working to bring its former republics under its influence once again. The Caucuses is important to Russia as it acts as buffer zone between Russia and other regional powers.

The AKP party has worked to normalise relations with Armenia, however there are elements in Armenia who will only accept this normalisation if Turkey accepts the role of the Ottomans in the Armenian massacre. Opposition parties in Turkey have used the issue as a political tool against the AKP domestic agenda.

Energy

Turkey’s geographic location has turned it into a conduit for energy. Straddling Europe and Asia, Turkey’s Ports receive crude oil and natural gas which is then refined and sold to European markets. Turkey has regularly advocated European energy projects, like Nabucco, that circumvent the Russian network. As one analyst put it: “The other more secure corridor for European energy diversification is Turkey – already an end point for two major pipelines from the Caspian. Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan supplies Europe with much needed alternative oil. But while Turkey has the potential to become an energy hub for Europe, there is much work left for the EU. The first order of business would be a diplomatic offensive to realize the Nabucco gas pipeline from Turkey to Austria through Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. This project would provide another key alternative route for Caspian resources to reach Europe to begin to ameliorate overdependence on Russia.”[1]

Russia’s use of its energy resources as a foreign policy tool has seen Ukraine, Lithuania and subsequently Europe being held hostage by the former world power. Europe and especially France and Germany’s dependency on Russia’s energy hydrocarbons has been exposed one too many times and Turkey currently represents the only alternative to Russian energy dependency.

Iraq

Turkey played a central role in ensuring the US constructed architecture came together in Iraq. Turkey has a policy of maintaining contact with all groups in Iraq. Moqtada Al-Sadr’s held talks in Ankara focused on the political process in 2009, the deadlock after the March 2010 elections saw Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, the leader of ISCI and Iyad Alawi travel to Turkey in order to gain Turkish support in forming the new government. Similarly the semi-autonomous Northern Iraq has seen over $5 billion in investment from Turkey. Turkish companies are the top investors in hotels, real estate, industry and the energy in the north, around 55% of the foreign firms in north Iraq – 640 of 1,170, are from Turkey. As one analyst put it: “Turkey has long facilitated the political stability in Iraq and hereafter Ankara would play a more critical role in Iraq’s political process because Ankara’s role in Iraqi politics balances the impact of Iran on Iraq.”[2]

The AKP has attempted to deal with the PKK through recognising the Kurdistan province, but as part of Iraq and not as a separate entity, it is making this conditional upon Kurdistan expelling the PKK. Every time it has attempted to push ahead with such a policy the army has begun operations in the northern Iraq – Southern Turkey region, thus stalling progress.

Middle East

Turkey is not part of the P5 + 1 nations who are attempting to construct a sanctions programme against Iran for enriching Uranium. The US has reneged all deals and agreements that have been reached which has allowed the Iran nuclear issue to escalate to the level it has. This shows that the US has no intention of solving this conflict and it has actually ensured no solution is ever reached. The US achieves a number of its aims in the region through this diplomatic crisis. America has gained a strategic advantage by providing security to the Gulf Arab countries in the face of Iran’s rhetoric; it has also forced the Israelis into a security pact.

Turkey doesn’t just agree with the two state solution but has actively participated and organised in the indirect and direct negotiations between the various participants of the US inspired two state solution. Stephen Larrabee, Corporate Chair in European Security at the RAND Corporation said regarding Turkey’s role in the Middle East “Turkey’s new activism is a response to structural changes in its security environment since the end of the Cold War. And, if managed properly, it could be an opportunity for Washington and its Western allies to use Turkey as a bridge to the Middle East.”[3] Turkey and Brazil’s nuclear fuel swap proposal to de-escalate the Iranian nuclear controversy was an alternative deal with Iran in the face of stiff European pressure with the non-permanent members of the United Nations over the permanent members.

Conclusions

Turkey has very limited energy resources, but because of its strategic location between Europe and Asia and between oil consumers and oil producers, it is crossed by several major oil and gas pipelines. Turkey’s geographical location makes it a natural trans-shipment route between the major oil producing areas in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus on the one hand, and consumer markets in Europe on the other. As a result Turkey has developed an advanced mineral processing industry and is a world leader in many key metals and chemicals. Turkey is also one of the world’s largest agricultural producers.

Whilst a critique can be provided for each of these policy areas, Turkey’s problem, is fundamentally, what is the AKP’s ambitions for the nation. Turkey’s assertiveness is described by as a ‘resurgence,’ this is questionable because Turkey is only manoeuvring within the orbit of the US. Turkey’s mediation in the Palestinian issue takes place when the US has decided negotiations should take place on the final settlement. Similarly America’s policy of containing Russia and pushing Russian assertiveness all the way back into Russian territory has seen Turkey play a leading role in the Caucuses to complicate Russian aims. Turkey’s has been repaid by the US by the House Foreign Affairs Committee passing a resolution condemning Turkey for the apparent role of the Ottoman’s in the Armenian Genocide. Whilst Turkey continues to reform itself in order to be welcomed into the international arena America continues to use Turkey for its aims and the European Union continues to delay Turkey’s ambition to join the EU. Until Turkey takes lessons from its history, where it was a superpower and construct independent polices it will never be taken seriously.

 


[3] F. Stephen Larrabee, ‘ Turkey Rediscovers the Middle East,’ July/August 2007