The uprising in Syria will soon reach its fifth anniversary. It was back in 2011, when some youth in the Southern town of Da’raa wrote some graffiti calling for a change in the system that was the catalyst of the Arab Spring arriving in Syria. After over 200,000 deaths, the use of chemical weapons and the regional rulers as well an international community doing little to the regime in Damascus. They have all stood astonished as the resilience of the people of Syria after so many years. The last few months has seen a flurry of activity in Syria ever since Bashar al-Assad’s announcement in June 2015 that he lacked the troops necessary to win back the territories lost.

Russia began numerous meetings with all the players in the Syria conflict. Russia played a leading role as it has come up with an initiative for Syria. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin launched Russia’s new mediation effort in June when he met with Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman in St. Petersburg. The initiative demanded all sides work for an end to the war by launching a Syrian-led political process leading to a political transition, the peace process includes “the establishment of an inclusive transitional governing body with full executive powers, which shall be formed on the basis of mutual consent while ensuring continuity of governmental institutions.

In all the meetings in July and August, Russia’s initiative is what all the various nations, officials and leaders discussed. Sergei Lavrov confirmed Russia’s proposal was that all anti-ISIS forces, including the Syrian army, the Iraqi army, and the Kurds, pool their efforts. “They all must be united, and the regional players must use their influence with the groups on the ground to make such unification as efficient as possible,” Lavrov said. “Without pooling efforts of all those who confront terrorists on the ground, the US-led coalition’s airstrikes wouldn’t bring the desired results and the Islamic State wouldn’t be defeated.” (Saudi-Moscow for Syria focused talks, Boston Globe, 11 August)

Whilst few details emerged on the Russian initiative, on this occasion there was little opposition form the US, which indicated it supported the Russian initiative. Russian intervention in Syria on 30 September 2015 saw it move military equipment into Syria and began targeting rebel groups who were bleeding al-Assad’s forces to death in Idlib.

All of this culminated in the Vienna Conference on 14 November 2015, under the atmosphere of the Paris attacks. With ISIS immediately declaring responsibility, the meeting took on more urgency. But this meeting’s detailed agenda had already been prepared, something the Russia with the US was readying the reginal powers for. In Vienna 17 countries directly and indirectly effected by the uprising in Syria were gathered together to rubber stamp the US-Russia initiative, which interestingly did not involve the Syrian opposition or any of the rebel groups. The US-Russia initiative presented, for the first time a detailed blueprint for Syria, but had no-one from Syria was present in Vienna. The world powers are discussing Syria and telling the people of Syria how their country will transition. The blueprint is as follows:

• 1, 2016: UN will seek to convene Syrian government and opposition in formal negotiations
• By May 14, 2016: Cease-fire between Syrian government and opposition groups; process for drafting new constitution
• By May 14, 2017: Free elections administered by the UN held under the new constitution

Anyone should be able to see from all this that the US and Russia, despite their rhetoric, are on the same side when it comes to thwarting real change in Syria. The Russia initiative was in reality the latest reincarnation of the Geneva agreement which aims to preserve the regime in Syria with a transition process where a handpicked opposition enters into talks and eventually into a government with the regime in Damascus.

The meeting in Vienna was to inform the regional powers of the details and their roles. The people of Syria were not even part of the agreement that will be implemented upon them. But as the US has handpicked an opposition, who have followed every US proposal to the detail, who is expected to follow this timeline in return for positions in a future transitional government with the regime in Damascus. All the rebel groups who stand against this plan, will be dealt with through military action, as was outlined by the US Sec­re­tary of State, he said: “Diplo­mats meet­ing in the Aus­trian cap­i­tal also decided to place ISIS, along with the al-Qaeda affil­i­ated Nusra Front ter­ror­ist group, on a list of those sub­ject to mil­i­tary strikes even when a cease-fire is in place. The list, man­aged by the King­dom of Jor­dan, may later be expanded to include other groups in Syria.” The US will inter­vene directly in Syria, if needed to deal a fatal blow to the sin­cere rebel groups, under the guise of tar­get­ing ISIS and ter­ror­ism. This was some­thing US Sec­re­tary of Defence con­firmed in a Sen­ate hear­ing on Octo­ber 27th that the US will begin “direct action on the ground” against ISIS forces in Iraq and Syria. “We won’t hold back from sup­port­ing capa­ble part­ners in oppor­tunis­tic attacks against ISIL, or con­duct­ing such mis­sions directly whether by strikes from the air or direct action on the ground. This is com­bat and things are com­pli­cated.”

Both Russia and the US seem to have forgotten that all their plans for the past 5 years have been thwarted and the Iman and bravery of the people of Syria will not die. Today Bashar al-Assad controls less than 20% of the country due to the bravery of the sincere rebel fighters in Syria. Whether it is the US or Rus­sia, they have con­stantly under­es­ti­mated the resolve and capa­bil­i­ties of the rebel groups work­ing for real change in Syria. By Allah’s will the US and Russia will fail again.

وَإِذْ يَمْكُرُ بِكَ الَّذِينَ كَفَرُواْ لِيُثْبِتُوكَ أَوْ يَقْتُلُوكَ أَوْ يُخْرِجُوكَ وَيَمْكُرُونَ وَيَمْكُرُ اللّهُ وَاللّهُ خَيْرُ الْمَاكِرِينَ

“And [remember, O Muhammad], when those who disbelieved plotted against you to restrain you or kill you or evict you [from Makkah]. But they plan, and Allah plans. And Allah is the best of planners.”

(Al-Anfal: 30)

Adnan Khan