Analysis, Central Asia, Side Feature

The Main Threats to Rahmon’s Regime

The International discussion club “Valdaj” experts have identified the main threats that Russia might face already in 2016. Among other things, the situation in Tajikistan was mentioned. And they said that the main strategic threat to Russia was the US policy to its weakening and creation the pro-American regimes in the neighboring countries.

“On the background of the slowing growth in the building sector in Russia, this year the situation will be the most challenging in Tajikistan, where the current government sharpens the game, following the path of the prohibition of the systemic Islamist opposition. This measure is considered as a violation of the status quo, the basic rules of the peace coming after a five-year civil war of 1992-1997. At that time the admission of the representatives of the Islamists into political life was regarded as the most important condition for the end of resistance. The Tajik authorities are increasing confrontation with the Islamic Revival Party, which poses a threat to its situational alliance with the more radical groups. The possible resumption of the civil war in Tajikistan will inevitably force Russia to intervene”, Valdaj experts write.



Valdaj experts’ fears on the prohibition of the IRPT (Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan) and its consequences for Russia are slightly exaggerated, because today Rahmon’s regime is completely suppressed the IRPT, declaring it a terrorist organization. He has arrested many leaders of the party and to this day continues to arrest the remaining members of the IRPT in the country. And although there is a threat to the regime, it does not come from the IRPT, since the activity of the IRPT in the political arena in fact has come to naught and even none of the Western countries stand up for the IRPT, supporting it seriously.

And as for the real cause of concern in Russia, it is caused by the intensification of the US in the region and force the RF to take care of its colony and to prevent interference in the sphere of its immediate interest.

In fact, the large-scale military exercises took place from 15 to 20 March in the republic were just demonstrative on the part of the Russian Federation.

As for the real threats, they are as follows:

  1. The deterioration of the economic situation in Tajikistan, which might cause public discontent and is a direct threat to Rahmon’s regime.
  2. The IRPT is a moderate party, which had a certain audience with the Islamic feelings, and it filled a certain spiritual vacuum in society. With the ban of the IRPT and the beginning of the fight against any manifestation of Islam in society there formed a spiritual vacuum that posed a serious threat to the regime. However, the society will rise against the tyrant, only if they have a leader who will be able to push the people to revolt against the regime.

Umar Farsi