Europe

The Geopolitics of the Russian-US Conflict

What is being played out in the Caucuses is a continuation of the great game between nations where control over strategic locations and resources is driving both the US and Russia to support proxy governments, arm them and provide them with the necessary tools to fulfil their interests.

On the night of August 7th alongside the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics, Georgia’s president ordered an all-out military attack on Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia. The aerial bombardments and ground attacks were largely directed against civilian targets including residential areas, hospitals and schools. Tskhinvali was badly damaged. The attacks resulted in some 1500 civilian deaths, according to both Russian and Western sources. “The air and artillery bombardment left the provincial capital without water, food, electricity and gas. Horrified civilians crawled out of the basements into the streets as fighting eased, looking for supplies.” (AP, August 9, 2008). According to reports, some 34,000 people from South Ossetia have fled to Russia. (Deseret Morning News, Salt Lake City, August 10, 2008).

The ethnic cleansing of thousands of people in the breakaway region of South Ossetia led to Russia mobilising its military machine, something not seen since the days of the Soviet Union. The Georgian attack on South Ossetia for all intents and purposes has been seen as a deliberate provocation by Russia. What is playing out in the Caucasus is being reported in the world’s media in an alarmingly misleading light, making Moscow appear the lone aggressor after it sent troops into South Ossetia following the Georgian offensive on the territory. George W Bush within an hour of arriving back from the Olympics said “Russia has invaded a sovereign neighbouring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people; such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.”

The think-tank Stratfor, which often echoes the US intelligence community, has already portrayed that a “defining moment” has come in the post-Cold War era and the world is witnessing “the first major Russian intervention since the fall of the Soviet Union [in 1991].” It visualized that former Soviet republics’ bordering Russia would now be “terrified of what they face in the long run.”

This outbreak of violence in the Caucus forms part of a wider geopolitical struggle that has gained momentum since the end of the Soviet Union in 1990; the current crisis needs to be seen in this light.  

1990: USSR collapse

The US struggled with the Soviet Union for over 60 years and in 1990 managed to defeat not just the Soviet Union but Communism itself. With the collapse of the union the US worked to dismantle the architecture established by the USSR. The US worked to contain Russia by bringing all the former Soviet republics under its area of influence and for the next decade through the IMF and the World Bank, the US expanded its presence in the Balkans as it would give it the influence and control to effectively regulate the region. The US worked to contain the post-Soviet Russia, working to drive it out of the Balkans, East Europe and Central Asia. The US obstructed the deal on a federally controlled but semi independent Yugoslavia which led to civil war in 1993. It used this as a pretext to launch war against Serbia where Russia has ethnic ties with the Slavic’s, and by inaugurating Kosovo’s independence it further weakened Russian presence. The US worked to establish economic and military relations with Eastern European states, hence monopolising the security of the region. Such relations were used as a basis to coax such nations into NATO.

NATO

One of the key issues which is driving the current conflict between Russia and Georgia is the fact that since the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact in 1991, former states of the Soviet Union have been lured and bribed with promises by Washington into joining NATO. Rather than initiate discussions after the 1991 dissolution of the Warsaw Pact about a systematic dissolution of NATO, Washington has steadily converted NATO into what can only be called the military vehicle of an American global empire, linked by a network of military bases from Kosovo to Poland to Turkey to Iraq and Afghanistan. In 1999, former Warsaw Pact members Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic joined NATO. Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia followed suit in March 2004. Now Washington is putting immense pressure on the European Union members of NATO, especially Germany and France, that they vote in December to admit Georgia and Ukraine.

Georgia’s membership of NATO has far-reaching strategic implications. With the induction of Georgia, NATO crosses over from the Black Sea region to the frontiers of Russia. It constitutes a direct threat to Russia. In March 2008, Washington went ahead to recognize the independence of Kosovo in former Yugoslavia, making Kosovo a de facto NATO-run territory against the will of the United Nations Security Council and especially against Russian protest. Then President (now Prime Minister) Vladimir Putin responded with Russian Duma (parliament) hearings on recognition of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway republic in Moldova.

Georgia’s NATO membership ensures that the arc of encirclement of Russia by the US is strengthened. NATO ties facilitate the deployment of the US missile defence system in Georgia. The US aims to have a chain of countries tied to “partnerships” with NATO brought into its missile defence system – stretching from its allies in the Baltic and Central Europe, Turkey, Georgia, Israel, India, and leading to the Asia-Pacific.

Geopolitics

It is hard to see how the US was not in tune with Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia; since Saakashvili took power in 2003 the Pentagon has been in Georgia giving military aid and training. Not only are US military personnel active in Georgia today, according to an Israeli-intelligence source, Debkafile, in 2007 Saakashvili “commissioned from private Israeli security firms several hundred military advisers, estimated at up to 1,000, to train the Georgian armed forces in commando, air, sea, armoured and artillery combat tactics.”  The Georgian leadership could do this only with the perceived support and encouragement of a much more powerful force. Georgian armed forces were trained by hundreds of US instructors, and its sophisticated military equipment was bought in a number of countries. This, coupled with the promise of NATO membership, has emboldened Georgian leaders.

The geopolitics of energy lies at the core of the conflict in the Caucasus. The US has suffered a series of major reverses in the past two years in the great game over Caspian energy. Moscow’s success in getting Turkmenistan to virtually commit its entire gas production to Russian energy giant Gazprom for export has been a stunning blow to US energy diplomacy. Similarly, the US has failed to get Kazakhstan to loosen its close ties with Russia, especially the arrangement to route its oil exports primarily through Russian pipelines.

There are consequently uncertainties over the viability of the much-touted Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline project, which was commissioned in 2005 with US funding and open political support. Similarly, Russia’s South Stream project aimed at transporting Russian and Caspian gas to Balkan and southern European countries and the failure of the US-sponsored Nabucco gas pipeline project have come as setbacks to Washington.
Resurgent Russia

The fall of the USSR in 1990 was considered the death of communism and the end of the Russian Empire which dated back to the days of the Tsar’s. The Russian economy was opened to foreign investment and industry was sold to foreigners leaving the country vulnerable to swings in world prices. In 1998 speculators withdraw large amounts of money which caused a financial crisis. The crisis raised poverty from 2 million to 60 million, a 3000% increase. UNICEF noted that this resulted in 500,000 ‘extra’ deaths per year. The IMF and World Bank took firm control of the Russian economy, selling state assets and utilities for the cheap, making billionaires out of oligarchs.

Vladimir Putin succeeded Boris Yeltsin in 1999, a nationalist who endeavoured to change the fortunes of Russia. Putin began the process of re-nationalizing key sectors, assets, utilities and industries through policies intended to change the course of the nation. He dealt with the oligarchs who were essentially looting the nation, by restricting the amount of money they took out of the nation; some were allowed to leave the country only if they contributed to the re-building of the nation such a Roman Abramovich, whilst other oligarchs were dealt with ruthlessly. He stabilized the domestic situation through economic policies which were only possible under a dictatorship – any parliament or senate would have stalled on such huge decisions and would have allowed their own interests to get in the way.

Such resurgence has brought Russia into direct political conflict with the West, especially the US. In less then 10 years Russia has been transformed from a fallen animal stabbed in the back by its own, to a lion roaring its way back to its old status. With much of the world’s energy reserves and Europe’s pipelines running through former Soviet Union territory Russia’s resurgence represents a direct threat to a US which has faced little challenge on its global supremacy.   

Russia has also moved to expand its military might; in August 2007, Russia conducted large-scale war games with China and the Central Asian states under the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). These games were widely interpreted as a warning sent by both Russia and China to America and as a show of strength against the Americans. Putin also ordered the resumption by Russian long-range bombers of patrols around the world, with the bombers being armed with nuclear missiles. These bombers will now resume the Soviet practice of flying in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. As a reminder of the Cold War, the Russian bombers also flew close to the US military base of Guam in the Pacific. This development has led Russia to increase its defence budget to $42 billion in order to modernise its military forces.

Conclusions

What is being played out in the Caucuses is a continuation of the great game between nations where control over strategic locations and resources is driving both the US and Russia to support proxy governments, arm them and provide them with the necessary tools to fulfil their interests. Many Muslims as well as non-Muslims have died in the process as was seen during the break-up of Yugoslavia and the war in Chechnya. The independence of Kosovo which was led by NATO and the US after the barbaric and inhuman slaughtering committed by Serbian government against the Muslims of Kosovo, was in no way for the love of the Muslims but because its fulfils US interests of breaking up the region and bringing each nation under its influence. 

The Muslims rulers should also hang their heads in shame and humiliation. Russia during the 1990’s was systematically destroyed and siphoned of to corrupt politicians as well as the mafia. With less resources then the Muslim world together with vision and direction it has managed to change its situation through the mobilisation of its resources and labour in order to fulfil it’s national interests.  

The current conflict in reality is not between Russia and Georgia but between Russia and the US. A resurgent Russia means it can now attempt to re-shape global politics and begin to compete with the US again. With the US bleeding from Iraq and Afghanistan, the current battle in Eastern Europe may well become a defining point in history when looked back upon in years to come.