الَّذِينَ قَالَ لَهُمُ النَّاسُ إِنَّ النَّاسَ قَدْ جَمَعُواْ لَكُمْ فَاخْشَوْهُمْ فَزَادَهُمْ إِيمَاناً وَقَالُواْ حَسْبُنَا اللّهُ وَنِعْمَ الْوَكِيلُ

"Those whose faith only increased when people said, ‘Fear your enemy: they have amassed a great army against you,' and who replied, ‘Allah is enough for us: He is the best protector." Al-Imran, 3:173

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Introduction

Pakistan since its inception has faced one crisis after another. It has continued to stumble from one problem to another due to never having a leadership with the capability or the will to tackle Pakistan's problems head on. Today, Pakistan faces a situation which is unprecedented in its history. From some perspectives Pakistan's inability to deal holistically with its problems has compounded its current woes. US plans for Pakistan are fast reaching boiling point, with the Mumbai attacks accelerating attempts by the US to weaken Pakistan.

What should be clear is that Pakistan is in no position to shape the geopolitics taking place in front of its very eyes. India is playing a very prominent role with the US in order to shape what happens to Pakistan. Both India and the US have successfully created international public opinion against Pakistan for having so called ‘rogue elements’ within its security services that say are a menace to the world due to their support for Jihadi groups. Such claims are eerily similar to the case the US built against Iraq and should confirm to every Muslim that we are in the early phase of the world gathering against another Muslim nation. The question remains that is Pakistan fast descending into the next Iraq? This paper attempts to analyse US historical interests in south Asia, the problem Pakistan represents for the US and what options remain open for Pakistan.

Subcontinent

The Subcontinent was carved out by the British Empire, who created Pakistan by drawing the Durand line which separated Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the Radcliffe line which separated India from Pakistan. A host of territorial disputes have ever since defined Indo-Pak relations, both view each other as enemies and both have attempted with varying success to shape the final borders of the territories that were disputed. Relations with India reached boiling point in 1971, when Pakistan’s fragmentation was fuelled by India through operations under which a separatist Bengali militia was created and trained in Indian West Bengal. They then launched a war of attrition against the Pakistan army, boosted by an Indian invasion. Pakistan lost half its territory after the Indian intervention and despite Pakistan being a signatory of Western defence pacts, such as the Central Treaty Organization and the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization, the US and other nations looked on in the opposite direction.

US Strategic interests

America’s first major foray into the region was during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, through operation Cyclone – the code name for the United States CIA programme to arm the mujahideen. The US initiated multiple programs for training Jihadi groups in techniques such as car bombings, assassinations and engaging in cross-border raids into the USSR. The Islamification process was deemed necessary for the US as the Soviet invasion was seen as a potential threat to the Persian Gulf. The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) provided the money and resources, and the ISI utilized these in fighting a guerrilla war in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union. The US left the region in 1989 after Soviet withdrawal and left Pakistan to pick up the mess.

 

The US strategy for the region is built around containing a future threat from China. For this the US is developing a number of nations around China to ensure the balance of power in the region never becomes firmly in China’s grip. For the Sub-continent which borders China the US has focused upon developing India as a rising regional power and turning India into a policeman for the region.

It was during this conflict and its aftermath that Pakistan established its strategic assets which are at the centre of the current crisis. These assets are non-state actors – the mujahideen. Kashmiri’s were groomed in Afghan camps and then launched into Kashmir to start an indigenous Kashmiri liberation movement in 1989. The movement was fuelled by several big and small Afghan mujahideen groups disengaging from Afghanistan and going to Kashmir. The ISI groomed several groups, such as Harkat-e-Jihad-i-Islami, Harkatul Mujahideen and Jaish-e-Muhammad. The closest to the military establishment was Lashkar-e-Taiba. With an estimated 15,000 fighters alongside the Pakistan army the Indian forces totalling 800,000 personnel were humbled in Kargil before Nawaz Sharif’s humiliating withdrawal.

Despite its tentative attention to the Kashmir dispute, the US has always had a view on the issue of Kashmir. From the beginning of the Kashmir conflict the US endorsed UN resolutions on the matter and supported Pakistan’s demands for a plebiscite in the territory.

This all changed in 1993 when in the midst of strong rhetoric directed towards India by the US administration, Narasimha Rao began the liberalisation of the Indian economy allowing foreign multinational companies to enter the Indian market and heralding India’s embracement of the global world market. The US saw this opening up of the Indian economy as being beneficial to US commercial interests. It was at this point that the US began a shift in policy, leaving Pakistan behind, and changing its position upon Kashmir. The US bent over in the direction of India in order to enhance economic and strategic relations.

Ever since multiple high level exchanges have taken place which were unprecedented in the history of both nations. Bilateral relations have included a civilian nuclear deal, potential UN Security Council membership as well as numerous economic deals. Interestingly India very quickly established diplomatic relations with Afghanistan after the US invasion.[1] It has provided aid and participated in the reconstruction efforts to the tune of $750 million making it one of the largest providers of aid to Afghanistan. India’s support and collaboration extends to rebuilding air links, power plants and investing in health and education sectors, as well as helping to train Afghan civil servants, diplomats and police. India also seeks the development of electricity, oil and natural gas supply lines. Such a policy by India has aided the US in stabilizing Afghanistan when the US is in reality losing the war there. It has also contributed to weakening Pakistani influence in a nation which was until the US invasion considered Pakistani territory.

Containing China

The US strategy for the region is built upon containing a future threat from China. The US is developing a number of nations around China to ensure the balance of power in the region never becomes firmly in China’s grip. For the Sub-continent which borders China the US has focused upon developing India as a rising regional power and turning it into a policeman for the region.

On 20th March 2003 in her testimony before the sub-committee on Asia and the Pacific, US Assistant Secretary of State, Christina Rocca, stated, “Soon after taking office, President Bush outlined his vision of a transformed and deepened US-India partnership, one that reflects India’s emergence as a major regional power.”[2]

On the 13th May 2003, the former US Ambassador to India, Robert Blackwill wrote in a US National Security Strategy policy document, “We start with a view of India as a growing world power with which we have common strategic interests.”[3]

US objectives in the region have continued to become apparent under the Bush administration but for such ambitions to materialise serious obstacles need to be overcome. The biggest obstacle standing in the way of US ambitions is the disputed territory of Kashmir. This crisis continues to thwart US policy, as it acts as a continuous strain on the Indian economy and political focus as she spends approximately $1 million a day on monitoring and policing the territory. Hence a solution to this problem is critical for the US to achieve its interests in the region of containing China.

Central Asia

The subcontinent’s close proximity to Central Asia also resulted in the US manoeuvring in the area. The disintegration of the Soviet Union created 15 new republics five of which constitute Central Asia. Uzbekistan was the largest, then Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikstan. Central Asia’s close proximity to the Caspian basin, and the former Soviet republic’s vast deposits of oil, gas, coal, and uranium, the US since the collapse of the Soviet Union has been working to bring all the former Soviet republics under its influence.

 

Central Asia’s close proximity to the Caspian basin, and the former Soviet republics vast deposits of oil, gas, coal, and uranium, the US since the collapse of the Soviet Union has been working to bring all the former Soviet republics under its influence.

Zeyno Baran of the Hudson institute and the Nixon centre encapsulated US interests in Central Asia in her testimony to the Senate: “With its significant oil and gas reserves, especially in Russia and Kazakhstan, the Eurasian region is vitally important to the US strategic effort to diversify energy supplies away from sources in the Middle East. The US has a clear need to ensure that these supplies reach world markets cheaply and safely; however, it has an equal need to ensure internal reforms in the countries of the region. If it fails to do so, its effort to end its energy dependence on oil and gas from Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf will only result in the creation of a “second Middle East,” with equally damaging consequences for US interests.”[4]

The US now views Central Asia and South Asia through the same lens. Condoleezza Rice confirmed in January 2006 that South Asia and Central Asia are high on her list of global priorities, and the State Department is adjusting its bureaus so that the same teams of experts and diplomats are focused on both regions.

“One of the things that we did in the State Department was to move the Central Asian republics out of the European bureau, which really was an artifact of their having been states of the Soviet Union, and to move them into the bureau that is South Asia, which has Afghanistan, India and Pakistan.” “It represents what we’re trying to do, which is to think of this region as one that will need to be integrated, and that will be a very important goal for us.”[5]

However the resurgence of Russia has meant the reversal of many US inspired colour revolutions. The US faces serious competition in Central Asia, as the conflict between Russia and Georgia (a US ally) showed. For the US, Central Asia will be the next Middle East. With the continued rise of China, gaining a full grip on the subcontinent has become even more important as it will provide the US with multiple geopolitical advantages over its adversaries.[6]

The Pakistan Problem

After decades of nurturing and developing Jihadi groups the Pakistan armed forces have developed deep relations with the Mujhaideen. However since the events of 9/11, which are considered to have been carried out by non-state actors, groups such as the Taliban were seen as a threat to US interests. Such groups who the US initially nurtured and armed were considered to have outlived their use. The launch of the ‘war on terror’ was in part to reverse the Islamification process which initially the US used to expel the Soviet Union from Afghanistan.

 

Since the events of 9/11, which are considered to have been carried out by non-state actors, groups such as the Taliban were seen as a threat to US interests and such groups who the US initially nurtured and armed were considered to have outlived their use. The launch of the ‘war on terror’ was in part to reverse the Islamification process which initially the US used to expel the Soviet Union from Afghanistan.

As Pakistan created and nurtured such groups, Pakistan was given an ultimatum to join America’s ‘war on terror’ and turn its back on such groups. It was understood by US policy makers that such non-state sectors only exist due to the supply line provided by states. Removing such a supply line would remove any such danger from them and allow the US to strengthen its position in the region.

Whilst in power General Musharraf duly obliged and in cahoots with the US banned many such groups, stopped their funding and ordered many of the tribes that provided support to them to halt such actions.

However after eight years, the US has found many elements within the ISI as well as the army refusing to end their support for the Mujahideen. Because of this Barack Obama views Pakistan and the FATA areas as key to victory in the war on terror and in realising US interests in the region. His statement that he would consider military action inside Pakistan to attack al-Qaeda, even if the Pakistani government did not give approval needs to be viewed in this context.[7]

The US over the last eight years fell into major problems as it continued drowning in a sea of debt in funding the war effort, and continued to bleed to death from the conflict. The US is in a weak position to expand the theatre of war and engage in direct military conflict with Pakistan. It has therefore been forced to rely on a strategy that does not require direct conflict with Pakistan for the moment; as a result the US has worked to weaken Pakistan through a variety of styles:

–          Through the IMF, the US has made Pakistan economically dependent on its aid. The $7.6 billion agreement with the IMF will only weaken Pakistan further as it makes the economy dependent on foreign sources of money instead of domestic sources.

–          The US worked with Britain’s representative Mark Layall Grant, former High Commissioner to Pakistan, for a considerable period of time in order to bring a compliant leadership to power when Musharraf was losing credibility in the eyes of the Ummah. The mandate for Bhutto when she returned in September 2007 and then Zardari, was to completely neglect the national interest and work for US aims in return for US aid. Bhutto’s return to the nation proved she had no problem in selling out the nation again.

–          The US worked to separate the civilian government from the army. The army could then focus on a mercenary type role and strangle the insurgency along the Durand line. General Ashfaq Kiyani was the best the US could find who would also keep the Islamic elements at bay within the armed forces.

–          The US has also worked to clip the wings of the ISI. The director-general of the ISI and top officials, as well as the chief of the external wing and the chief of the internal security wing were all fired in September 2008 on the US’s recommendation, but the US felt that the ISI’s structure was too complex for it to be “reformed” by the sacking of a few senior officials. The US is working to reduce the agency from a grand secret service that earned international fame during the Soviet invasion to an intelligence wing of the Interior Ministry.

–          The US has worked to create public opinion that Pakistan is an irresponsible nation that should not have nuclear weapons. The US continues to push the idea that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is vulnerable to takeover by extremists, and therefore requires US security to protect them or in the extreme case completely destroying them. America also continues to push the idea that the Pakistan military and ISI sympathize with and support Islamists, which makes the possibility of the nuclear material going missing a real threat.

The US has however found that Islamic elements (which it terms as the rogue elements) have continued their support for the Mujahideen, although the extent to which Pakistan’s army still supports the Mujahideen remains unclear. An army spokesman just after the Mumbai attacks described the two most prominent Pakistani Taliban commanders as ‘patriotic’ and downplayed the conflict as a misunderstanding.’[8]

With Zardari’s government in shambles, a few rogue elements are actually frustrating US aims in achieving hegemony over the region. With US patience wearing thin George W. Bush gave the order to begin surgical strikes inside Pakistan on selected targets. The US has been forced into such a posture due to the inability of its handpicked agents to curtail the Islamic elements within the army and ISI. Such a move is risky for the US as it means expanding the theatre of war, whilst losing the war in the existing area. To many extents the surgical strikes are limited, since without Pakistan completely abandoning the Mujahideen, they will crop up again elsewhere. Surgical strikes are therefore needed in Islamabad where the supply lines to the Mujahideen begin. This would however be seen as outright war by everyone in the Ummah, which for the US in its current predicament is not realistic, as Pakistan needs to be weakened further to ensure almost certain US military victory.

This leaves the US with only one last remaining option, and that is fragmenting Pakistan through civil strife. Such a policy was proposed in the 2005 report by the US National Intelligence Council and the CIA that forecast a “Yugoslav-like fate” for Pakistan. Many analysts are proposing such a policy as international public opinion is being created about Pakistan being the centre of global terrorism.[9] Many policy makers are alerting to the partitioning of Pakistan which will be reduced to essentially the Punjab region. The NWFP would recover a lot of hydroelectric power. Baluchistan would recover a lot of gas and become a Turkmenistan-style gas republic. Sindh if portioned would profit from its industry and ports.

 

Many policy makers are alerting to the partitioning of Pakistan which will be reduced to essentially the Punjab region. The NWFP would recover a lot of hydroelectric power. Baluchistan would recover a lot of gas and become a Turkmenistan-style gas republic. Sindh if portioned would profit from its industry and ports.

It’s no secret that that the US alongside both Britain and India have supported Baluchi separatism. In June 2006, Pakistan’s Senate Committee on Defence accused British intelligence of “abetting the insurgency in the province bordering Iran” (Press Trust of India, 9 August 2006). Ten British MPs were involved in a closed door session of the Senate Committee on Defence regarding the alleged support of Britain’s Secret Services to Baloch separatists.

The revival of the Balouchi Liberation Army (BLA) by the US and Britain was confirmed in an investigation by News Central Asia, a private news agency of Turkmenistan.[10] The BLA emerged shortly after Musharraf’s 1999 military coup. It has no tangible links to the Baloch resistance movement, which developed since the late 1940’s. An aura of mystery surrounds the leadership of the BLA. The BLA bears a canny resemblance to Kosovo’s Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), which was financed by the drug trade and supported by the CIA. In Yugoslavia, US and British military training and arms shipments helped build up the secessionist KLA from a small force of 300 soldiers into a sizable guerrilla army that made the province of Kosovo ungovernable. The very chaos that the West created was then used as a pretext for bombing Yugoslavia.

Washington has shied away from proscribing the BLA, despite it being a secessionist movement waging armed insurgency against Pakistan. It appears that Britain and the US are supporting both sides. The US is providing American F-16 jets to the Pakistani military, which are being used to bomb Balochi villages in Balochistan, whilst at the same time arming and funding Balochi separatism.

Pakistan’s Strategic Challenges

Pakistan represents a big problem for the US. With a resurgent Russia and Chinese-Pak relations warmer than ever, Pakistan will only increase in geopolitical importance. Pakistan actually holds the ace card. In order for any nation to gain a grip in the region it either needs to take Pakistan out or have it on its side. The US is finding a few Islamic elements within the army and the ISI standing in between US hegemony in the region and future US geopolitical interests.

Pakistan on the other hand is not in any way shaping the region. The Zardari government cannot even give the US what it wants due to its weakness. Pakistan’s window of opportunity to ensure it does not become like Iraq is fast closing. Pakistan has many opportunities to save itself from such a fate, however each of these options is disappearing very quickly. Pakistan must act now!

The world’s superpower is building its case against Pakistan and will join with other nations in any eventual action. As the world begins to gather against Pakistan we should remember that many sacrificed their livelihoods in the name of Islam when Pakistan was established, however the deen was never implemented.

Independent thinking is required to deal with this crisis. It requires the Ummah to look beyond the circumstances and work to change the current reality to what Islam requires of the Ummah.

Such thinking can be seen by the actions the Prophet صلى الله عليه وسلم undertook after establishing the Islamic State in Madina. He صلى الله عليه وسلم understood the threats that surrounded the newly emergent nation. In order to secure the state’s borders and create an aura of strength, the Prophet صلى الله عليه وسلم organised eight military expeditions. The last of these expeditions resulted in the famous battle of Badr. The expeditions took place on all the key trade routes in Arabia, with many treaties being signed with various tribes. By doing this the Prophet صلى الله عليه وسلم weakened the Quraysh by removing their influence along the trade routes.

We also see both Germany and Japan employed independent thinking and developed polices beyond the circumstances in order to rapidly industrialise and become world powers. Japan’s new found militarism in the 1930’s would have been cut short due to its lack of energy resources, but this was overcome through colonising large chunks of China.

Germany was destroyed after WW1. However the emergence of Hitler’s right wing party managed to capture the imagination of the German public through their 1000 year Aryan history. The lack of energy resources was overcome by invading Poland, Denmark and then France. It took WW2 to halt the ambitions of both nations.

Pakistan has many options and ace cards it can use to manoeuvre out of its current predicament. It should be remembered that Islam makes dawah to the world as the Khilafah’s foreign policy:

وَمَا هُوَ إِلَّا ذِكْرٌ لِّلْعَالَمِينَ

“But truly it is nothing other than a Reminder for all peoples.” [al Qalam, 68:52]

This would be the long term vision that all policies and actions should be directed towards. In order to achieve this, many strategic challenges need to be overcome. By Allah’s will and with strategic thinking Pakistan is not short of options.

Industrialisation

Historically all powers had strong militaries in order to maintain a dominant position in the world.  Having a strong military with military industries and technological development creates a very powerful deterrent and allows a nation to undertake military action if needed. As Pakistan will represent Islam it will need to industrialise which will allow it to develop and become self sufficient.

To achieve this Pakistan would need a combination of five year plan to oversee the creation and conversion of factories that refine iron and steel. Pakistan Steel is the nation’s only steel mill, opened in 1981 after seven years of construction. It was created with the technical help of the USSR and today produces one million tons of steel a year. Pakistan’s other heavy industries are all military industries. From this perspective Pakistan just needs to expand production, as it has the foundations to industrialise. In fact Baluchistan the least industrialised province of Pakistan has substantial mineral, oil and gas reserves which have not been exploited to their full capacity.

 

Pakistan surprisingly has managed to develop the foundations of an advanced military industry even though it has such a dysfunctional economy. Pakistan began with virtually no military production capability, however it has managed to become self sufficient, in areas such as aircraft overhaul, tanks, helicopters, frigates, submarine construction and fighter jets.

Pakistan surprisingly has managed to develop the foundations of an advanced military industry even though it has such a dysfunctional economy. Pakistan began with virtually no military production capability, however it has managed to become self sufficient in areas such as aircraft overhaul, tanks, helicopters, frigates, submarine construction and fighter jets. However with such a dysfunctional economy Pakistan has on some individual military areas made stunning advances which need to be built upon. These include the development of nuclear weapons, the development of an advanced tactical ballistic missile programme, the development of a basic space programme and the development of its own drones.

The development of military industries is important in order to industrialise and in the innovation of technologies. We see even though India aims to become dominant in world trade, at the same time it works to strengthen and modernise its military industries through arms deals with the US and Russia. Only 10 years ago Indian presence at World Trade Organisation (WTO) summits and trade negotiations was about how much aid India needed. Today India is seen as a partner in developing the rules for global trade. Through some very basic development India has changed the view the world has about it.

Military

In order to defend their nations many civilisations have maintained large armies. Today the US has one of the largest armies in the world in order to achieve full spectrum dominance. The US alongside this has made use of numerous paramilitary groups, terrorist groups and agents to achieve its aims. At the same time it has the nerve to criticise Pakistan’s support to Jihadi groups whilst the US for over 50 years has done the same. Pakistan fields the world’s 6^th largest army with over 1.5 million personnel. It should however fully incorporate the Muslims from the Jihadi groups into the army who have a track record of adherence to the deen. Islam obliges the Khilafah to view them the same as any other Muslim. India to a large extent has been on the receiving end of their fire power. Having such groups alongside the regular army would make Pakistan a potent force which will strike fear into anyone that has designs on Pakistan.

Resources

In order to industrialise and develop, a sizeable amount of raw and mineral resources are needed. A cursory glance at Pakistan from a geological perspective shows Pakistan has all the ingredients necessary to develop within its borders.

Pakistan has significant quantities of copper, chromite, iron, antimony, zinc and Gold. Baluchistan has the world’s fifth largest reserves of copper and over 20 million ounces of untapped Gold reserves. Pakistan has no shortage of coal and gas. Pakistan has been blessed with the world’s largest coal reserves after the US, at the Thar coal field in Sindh – the world’s largest coal field. It comprises around 175 billion tonnes of coal which is the equivalent of 618 billion barrels of crude oil; this would meet the country’s fuel requirements for centuries. Pakistan has an estimated 25.1 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven gas reserves. This has led to Pakistan having the highest number of compressed natural gas (CNG)-run vehicles in the world. Pakistan has been able to build five oil refineries. Although their capacity is small, under an industrialisation drive these can be expanded and will make Pakistan self sufficient in energy. The shortage of oil refineries in the Middle East will make any Pakistani expansion plans with regards refineries even more important.

All this shows that within a period of 5 to 10 years Pakistan could very easily change its fortunes – all it needs to do is expand. Russia was a nation on the brink of collapse after the fall of the USSR, with the mafia taking over many state industries. Vladimir Putin, a nationalist who endeavoured to change the status of the nation within eight years, has changed Russia and placed it in a position where it is now directly competing with the US.

New Pakistan

There are many different entities that are manoeuvring in the region. Until now Pakistan has not played a large role in shaping the region. On the few occasions it has, it was usually as a proxy for the US. However Pakistan has a number of options, with the correct political will, that it can utilise.

–          US relationship – Currently Pakistan has an unnecessary reliance on the US. The US needs Pakistan rather than Pakistan needing the US. The US relies on Pakistan for 80% of all equipment for its war effort in Afghanistan. It also needs Pakistani territory for meeting its fuel needs. Equipment and fuel is transported from ports in Karachi into Afghanistan through the Khyber Pass. Pakistan is also refining most of America’s fuel in its refineries for the war effort. In return Pakistan has received a paltry $10 billion for services rendered. According to Strategic Forecasting, the Texas-based private intelligence agency: “Pakistan remains the single-most important logistics route for the Afghan campaign. This is not by accident. It is by far the quickest and most efficient overland route to the open ocean.” Pakistan can very easily weaken the US in the region by turning its back on it. The US is already losing the war in Afghanistan and it is only the current compliant leadership in Pakistan that allows the US to avoid embarrassment.

–          Sino-Pak relations – China from many perspectives needs Pakistan due to its strategic location. China’s navy has a strategic presence on the Mekran coast in Baluchistan, and along the Gwadar port that overlooks the supply routes for oil needed to keep the Chinese economy growing, and for checking on India’s hegemonistic ambitions.[11] Developing strategic relations with China will allow Pakistan to move away from the US area of influence. This will at the same time complicate US plans to contain China. Pakistan should use such bargaining power with China to solve its Xinjiang separatist problem with a treaty of Hudaibiyah type deal.

–          India – India numerically is seven times larger than Pakistan, but its nuclear programme and missile programme are in parity to Pakistan’s. With the recent US civilian nuclear deal, India can now secure a foreign supply of nuclear fuel for civilian use. With two domestic satellite launch vehicles already in service, India is much more advanced in space technology than Pakistan.

Mobile land-based ballistic missiles are limited in quantities on either side. India and Pakistan are each thought to have the capacity for a second, or retaliatory, strike. India’s recent military cooperation with Russia has stretched the qualitative lead. India has fielded the most modern Russian main battle tank, the T-90, and has even begun to build the tanks under license. While Pakistan fields a significant number of older but still reasonably modern and capable Russian T-80s, it is qualitatively outmatched in terms of tanks.

India’s armoured formations also include more heavily armed armoured fighting vehicles than those of Pakistan. The Indian air force has begun to field the Russian Su-30MKI “Flanker,” one of the most modern fighter jets in the world, and has more on the way. Pakistan, meanwhile, has struggled to secure more modern F-16s from the United States in return for its counterterrorism cooperation. However with Chinese cooperation Pakistan jointly manufactures the JF-17 fighter and beginning in early January will begin to receive a fleet of 36 Chinese J10 multipurpose fighter aircraft.

The conflicts both nations have engaged in shows India’s size is its handicap. It costs India much more than Pakistan to maintain the Kashmir conflict due to the nature of the terrain between India and Kashmir. India has also been unable to take on the Jihadi groups Pakistan created which have been a menace to India since independence. It would cost India much more then Pakistan in any conflict which India is in no position to sustain. This is why India has been on most occasions very tame in its response when attacks have taken place on its soil. The fact that Pakistan has the ability to retaliate (India’s population of more than a billion people means India has more people to lose in a conflict) makes India’s military superiority useless.

Pakistan has developed a deterrent which is of sufficient capability for India to consider Pakistan’s deterrent powerful enough to render success in a war too doubtful to be worthwhile. The key for Pakistan is to deter India during its industrialisation drive and to only engage with India when Pakistan is in a position to sustain a war. However Pakistan has another ace card – India’s rising energy demand has created a perpetual state of energy crunch in India. India is poor in oil resources and is currently heavily dependent on coal and foreign oil imports for its energy needs. For these reasons India has made significant strides in renewable energy resources but to a large extent is relying on the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline (IPI). The proposed IPI is a 1,724 mile pipeline that will deliver natural gas from Iran to Pakistan and then on to India. Once the pipeline is completed this will give Pakistan much leverage to keep India at bay.

Muslims in India on the other hand, need to understand that as tensions grow between Pakistan and India exacerbated by the US, more and more scrutiny will fall upon the Muslims of India and their loyalty will be brought into question. The Muslims of India should remember that whilst there are over 15 separatist movements in India calling for separation and independence, the Muslims who are not even calling for independence are continually questioned with regards their loyalty. The Gujarat massacre showed the Ummah in India is not safe from Hindu rightwing groups who are an instrument used by the state.

–          Iran – Although Pakistan shares a border with Iran both nations have very little relations. Pakistan needs to explore the possibilities with Iran, especially in light that Islam requires reunification with the wider Muslim world. While Iran and Pakistan are neighbours, their regional outlooks have been somewhat different. Pakistan and Iran have always had cordial relations. It was only during the 1990’s, that relations between the two countries declined due to the rise of anti-Shia terrorist activities in Pakistan, the assassination of Iran’s counsel general Sadeq Ganji, in Lahore in 1990, and subsequently the coming to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan. When the Taliban captured the Afghan city of Maza-e-Sharif, they not only massacred thousand of Hazara Shia, they also murdered scores of Iranian diplomats, straining Iran’s bilateral ties with Pakistan, which at the time backed the Taliban.

Iranian-Pakistani economic relations are very low. Trade between Pakistan and Iran during 2005 was barely more than $500 million. The problem fundamentally with Iran is the huge influence that the US has on it, and the fact that the reformist camp wants to develop deeper relations with the US and move away from the conservatives who believe in the ideas of the Islamic revolution. Pakistan should develop and deepen its relations with the conservatives and tie the Iranian economy with Pakistan’s which Iran desperately needs due to its outdated infrastructure and primitive oil refineries.

–          Russia – Pakistan could build relations with Russia which would bring Russia into the region. This would then complicate things for the US who is finding a more resurgent Russia a big problem in Central Asia. Russia as well as China are resentful of America’s colonialist hegemony within the region, and are opposed to America’s military presence in Afghanistan and have repeatedly voiced concerns. The US aims to contain Russia by bringing all the former Soviet republics under its influence through security deals. Pakistan could complicate things for the US by bringing Russia into the region. However such a policy would need to be assessed as one would not want to replace the US with Russia.

–          Self-sufficiency – Through industrialisation, the huge increase in production of iron and steel will lead to rapid expansion in the labour force which will create jobs that have never existed in Pakistan. The development of iron and steel mills will allow supplementary industries to be created such as an arms industry, agriculture machinery along with motor industries. Also a wide range of back up industries supplying components will be created which brings jobs and investment opportunities for industrialists and entrepreneurs. Creating industry will have a profound effect on Pakistan’s economy and have a huge stimulus on the economy. What is currently lacking in Pakistan is any direction or planning in the economic sphere. Industrialists refuse to start any large scale projects due to the lack of long term stability hence they make no long term investments. The creation of jobs will naturally increase consumption as people will possess greater amounts of income. This in turn will increase demand for goods from the general masses. Such an increase in aggregate demand will push the development of other sectors of the economy such as the manufactured goods sector, the consumer goods sector and also demand for luxuries. This demand will push people to supply these goods further creating more jobs and more wealth in the economy.

–          Reunification with the Muslim world – All Pakistan’s options have various advantages and disadvantages. With the US attempting to continually tie a noose around Pakistan, in reality Pakistan has one assured strategy that will almost certainly ward off the US and at the same time turn itself into a world power. Islam obliges only one state for the whole Ummah and this means reunification with the Muslim world is compulsory. With most of the Muslim world living under dictators in severe poverty unification is not a difficult task to achieve, however it does face challenges. Aside from Western agents who will want to hold onto their positions, the challenge to a large extent will be the ability of Pakistan to quickly expand and join the nations together through linking their governance, judiciary, administration and economies. The Soviet Union achieved such a feat in the past by building the Communist camp. Pakistan today has a very powerful motivation which will easily make different nations become part of the union and that is Islam itself. Through industrialisation Pakistan will have the ability to develop the different economies so the daily life of the Ummah improves.

Conclusion

The global Ummah needs to realise that we are in the early stages of the US attempting to build a compelling case against Pakistan. Weakening the potential threats from the Muslim world has been the plan since the dissolving of the USSR. The Neo-cons reminded the Muslim world almost daily about the superiority of their civilisation and the lengths the US will go to defend it. The Ummah has once again entered into an unprecedented period. However the opportunity for the Ummah to challenge and overt this, is fast closing.

Pakistan has all the necessary ingredients to rapidly industrialise, unify with the Muslim world and become a global player. From many perspectives Pakistan is in a much better position on the eve of development than many of the industrialised nations were. Both the US and Britain had very small populations whilst Germany and China today have energy challenges. Pakistan today has a population of 172 million where 50% of the population is under the age of 15. Only 4% of the population is over 65.

What is lacking, not just in Pakistan but the wider Muslim world is the correct political will. The leaders in the Muslim world in reality have sold the Ummah out for years. General Musharraf realised in the end that the colonialists will even dispose of their agents eventually. The armed forces in Pakistan need to move to save Pakistan, they need to make change. They will one day stand in front of Allah سبحانه وتعالى and have to explain why they did not move even though they had the strength to do so.

Those who save the deen, work to establish it and strengthen it have an exalted position in the eyes of Allah سبحانه وتعالى. Their names will be remembered throughout history, with successive generations making du’a for them, and they will be highly rewarded by Allah سبحانه وتعالى.  The Prophet صلى الله عليه وسلم prophesied that Constantinople will be conquered one day, and it was Muhammed al-Fatih who Allah blessed with this honour.

The Prophet صلى الله عليه وسلم reminded us that the Khilafah will return when he said:

“The Prophethood will last among you for as long as Allah wills, then Allah would take it away. Then it will be (followed by) a Khilafah Rashida (rightly guided) according to the ways of the Prophethood. It will remain for as long as Allah wills, then Allah would take it away. Afterwards there will be a hereditary leadership which will remain for as long as Allah wills, then He will lift it if He wishes. Afterwards, there will be biting oppression, and it will last for as long as Allah wishes, then He will lift it if He wishes. Then there will be a Khilafah Rashida according to the ways of the Prophethood.” Then he kept silent.

Musnad Imam Ahmad (v/273)

Sa’ad ibn Muadh رضي الله عنه gave the Prophet صلى الله عليه وسلم the necessary military and political support (nusra) as one of the chiefs of the key tribes of Madina. His support played a vital role in establishing Islam as a way of life. On his death the throne of Allah سبحانه وتعالى moved, and Allah سبحانه وتعالى truly elevated his status.

When Sa’ad ibn Muadh رضي الله عنه died, Jibreel عليه السلام came to the Prophet صلى الله عليه وسلم and said: “Who was this good soul who died? The gates of the heavens were opened for him and the throne of Allah moved.” (Ahmed).

When his body was carried after the Janazah the Muslims carrying the body said, “We have not carried a dead body lighter than this.” The Prophet صلى الله عليه وسلم replied to them: “Nothing made his body lighter, but it was such and such number of angels (many angles) who descended and carried him along with you. Those angels had never before descended.” (Narrated in Tabaqat ibn Sa’ad).

Bukhari narrates on the authority of Jabir رضي الله عنه who said: “I heard the Prophet صلى الله عليه وسلم say: ‘the heavens trembled at the death of Sa’ad bin Muadh.'”

The Ummah globally supports the army to move for this change and backs them all the way. The army should remember that there are many capable individuals in the Ummah that can implement Islam after the current rulers are removed. Hizb ut-Tahrir has worked for over half a century in developing a constitution, economic policy, industrialisation policy, legal system and education curriculum that can be applied when the opportunity arises.

O army of Pakistan, the Ummah is with you, Allah سبحانه وتعالى is with you, Allah سبحانه وتعالى has promised you success, this is not the time to sit idle when the kuffar gather against you.

 

Adnan Khan

22^nd January 2009

 

Bibliography

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Professor Andrej Kreutz, The Geopolitics of post-Soviet Russia and the Middle East, Arab Studies Quarterly (ASQ) (Washington, D.C.: Association of Arab-American University Graduates, January 2002). http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2501/is_1_24/ai_93458168/pg_1

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