Question:
The previous US administration’s important achievement in Syria i.e. the surrendering of Aleppo to the Syrian regime has coincided with its imminent departure: the administration was following a plan that was bearing “fruits” on borrowed time… and now after the advent of the new administration of President Trump on 20/01/2017, what is expected from Trump’s policy to build on those “fruits” in Syria? Is it possible to outline some of the expected Trump’s International policy with Russia, China and the European Union and in particular with Britain? And how can we explain the escalation of the violent brazen tone of Trump towards Islam and Muslims? May Allah سبحانه وتعالى reward you.
Answer
Although it was a short time since the inauguration of Trump as president of the United States to know the exact policy, and despite his electoral statements do not necessarily give a complete picture of his executive policy, but some of his statements released: in action and words in the past days of his rule, give an idea of his policy to some extent, bearing in mind these statements: in action and words into account with the knowledge that the US policy is run by institutions that are not much affected by the president, but the styles are different … Accordingly, we will answer the queries contained in the question as follows:
First: Trump’s policy to further invest in the “fruits” of the Obama administration in the Syrian crisis:
1- Yes, the previous US administration plan started to bear “fruit” for that administration nearing its end, and this is evident in the success of Turkey in putting pressure on the armed factions. This is because Turkey has acquired a lot of Syrian opposition keys over the years of the revolution, but many reasons prevented Washington from using those keys, and after a meeting between the US President Obama with Turkish President Erdogan on 1/4/2016 and the Turkish president’s fulfillment of the US demands. Turkey took a turn on its position on the Syrian crisis, and it turned its back on Europe, and reconciled with Russia, and subsequently it resulted in what became known as the “Shield of the Euphrates” in Syria on 24/08/2016, that process which under pressure represented the first point of pulling out the pro-Turkey armed opposition, to keep them away from fighting Bashar’s Army in Aleppo and elsewhere, and the continued Turkish pressure with more intensity on those factions, who found themselves at a critical moment in which they must pay the bill of the Turkish support, so the armed factions answered Turkey and handed over Aleppo and withdrew from it on 14/12/2016. The Turkish pressure continued on those factions who found themselves facing a severe Turkish push towards negotiating with the Russian criminal in Ankara, thus those factions in Ankara ended up signing a cease-fire declared by the Russian President Putin from Moscow on 29/12/2016, and to start preparing for the Astana negotiations, the capital of Kazakhstan on 23/1/2017.
2- On the surface those actions clearly indicated that the American plan brought about its fruit, America found a way to solve the dilemma of the armed factions, that for years was a major obstacle to the negotiating track, after the United States found that the keys of those factions had indeed gathered in Erdogan’s grip. Turkey showed an unrivaled dedication to achieve America’s goals at the level of the armed factions, completing its shift with the armed factions from being a supporter to being a broker, then pressurized and humiliated them, even dragged them to Astana in Kazakhstan. Turkey kept playing this role in service of America as a loyal subordinate even after the announcement of President-elect Trump’s win on 9/11/2016, and it did not even think about any possible changes after resuming office on 20/1/2017.
3- The Trump administration began to reap the “fruits” of what the Obama administration sowed regarding the armed opposition in Syria, that it is reassured that Turkey is well in control of the status of the armed factions and holds the keys of war and peace. The outbreak of fighting between the participant groups in Astana and the rejectionist factions that America classified as “terrorist” is what America want, for it weakens the side that is fighting the regime, and paves the way for the regime … especially that Turkey has started to classify the factions as terrorist and non-terrorist, even though it did not classify them as terrorist previously but it did after the meeting in Astana on 23/01/2017, so the fight between terrorist and non-terrorist started according to that classification. Reuters also quoted a source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry, on 26/1/2017 that Turkey has classified Fatah al-Sham Front “The Nusra Front” as terrorist, which wasn’t classified as so before the Astana meeting, and then the infighting between the terrorist and non-terrorist factions erupted, this shows how “fruitful” is Turkey’s loyalty to America in Syria.
Second: As for the Trump Russia policy: it is to tempt Russia, with soft speech but with clear physical threat to make it carry out America’s interests, while it follows the United States with no effective initiative acts; driven by America from behind the curtain same as Obama has done. And so Trump agrees with Obama on the objective, i.e. serving the interests of America but he differs in the manner, by making Russia get closer to Trump for his soft speech, and simultaneously aware of the weight of pressure from Trump and therefore implement his policy, especially towards China; Trump will not be sufficed by demoting Russia’s into negotiations with Turkey instead of America in the Syrian negotiations with Russia, but he also took effective stances shaking the Russian leadership… Those stances’ indicators are seen and heard! Among them are:
1- Because Trump has shown flexibility towards Russia in his electoral campaign, Russia thought that by holding the Astana conference after Trump’ inauguration will make America highly estimate the conference and attend it in high-level delegation. Russia had been eagerly waiting for president Trump to take office, in hope that Trump’s Secretary of State will attend, this is why Russia was looking forward for the Astana conference to be a start of negotiations for comprehensive peace between the Syrian opposition and the government of Bashar with support from Trump, this is confirmed by what has been reported by the BBC on 30/12/2016 on Lavrov “for his part, the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov said that his ministry has begun preparations for a meeting to resolve the Syrian crisis in Astana, capital of Kazakhstan.” As a result of its political stupidity thinking that Trump supports Russia! Thus it invited Washington to attend the conference, expecting that it will be attended by a high-level delegation. It was a slap on the face for Russia when Washington sent the US ambassador in Astana instead as an observer!
Thus the Astana negotiations were held on 23/1/2017 and ended on 24/01/2017 without any significant result for a cease-fire, instead the bombing intensified at Wadi Barada! Of course, without any political solution … So the Astana talks were at a lower level than what Russia wanted, and they ended stalling on the ceasefire square.
2- Then came another bigger blow than the previous one; the announcement of the US President Trump that he “definitely will establish safe zones in Syria” to protect people fleeing violence there. (Reuters, 26/1/2017), and that was without consulting with Russia. The Kremlin responded to the US president’s statements, Donald Trump, in which he emphasized the need to create safe zones in Syria, by denying any prior coordination between the White House and Moscow about the move, and urged him to consider what it described as “possible consequences” of the decision. Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for the press on behalf of the Russian President said on Thursday, in response to a question about the existence of prior coordination between the two sides: “No, our American partners did not consult with us. It is a sovereign decision for them, the important thing is that this does not further deteriorate the situation of refugees. It is worthwhile to consider all possible consequences.” (CNN Arabic, 26/01/2017). America is acting in such a way, because it is reassured of Russia’s inability to take any influential reaction, for it has fully implicated Russia in Syria, and became difficult for it to leave Syria, and perhaps a dream to Kremlin … Russia needs America to find a way out.
3- Dwarfing the Russian role in Syria … America’s policies in Syria, such as that announced by Trump on safe zones is to undermine Russia’s role in Syria, threatening the achievements of the “greatness” that Russia earned through the Syrian crisis! Among the first signs of Trump’s Russia’s policies in Syria, is tasking it to fight Daesh (ISIS) in way threatening to limit its role to this only, and even if it’s given a role it would be marginal, following the American plans … at a time when America is regaining the lead directly, without the need to hide behind Russia’s attitudes, some news indicate so, such as what Russia Today has cited on 27/01/2017.
The New York Times reported that US President Donald Trump will order the Pentagon to prepare a larger-scale assault plan to fight “Daesh” in Syria, and other plan for “safe zones”, within 3 months. The newspaper quoted officials in the administration of President Trump that he would assign his Secretary of State for Defense to prepare a plan of action in Syria, that may include deploying American artillery on Syrian territory or to wage attacks using American combat helicopters to support a ground assault on “Daesh’s” stronghold in Raqqa. Officials said that Trump will ask the Pentagon to present the new plan within 30 days…, and possible options mentioned by the newspaper, includes expanding the use of US special operations forces, and increase the number of US military personnel deployed in Iraq and Syria, as well as granting the Pentagon and field commanders additional permissions to speed up the decision-making process.
This policy requires reducing the role of Russia in Syria, and for the new Russian- American agreement on Syria to be one of the terms among other international terms to be subject for bargaining and consent, most notably Ukraine and serving America on the Chinese issue. What confirms these American directions regarding Russia, is that President Trump wasn’t in such a hurry in lifting the sanctions on Russia, the US president said it was too early to talk about lifting sanctions on Russia. (Al Jazeera Net, 28/1/2017), and not confirming any improvement in relations with Russia, Trump stressed that improving relations between the United States, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other hand, would be a positive step, but the new US president admitted there is a possibility that this does not happen, noting that for now, he does not know whether the relations between his country and Russia, will be “good, or bad, or if there will be one at all.” (Russia Today, 27/01/2017)
Third:Trump’s expected policy towards the European Union and especially Britain:
1- Trump has inbuilt American dreams to dismantle the European Union, and for his lack of diplomacy, he does not hide it, he has praised even before winning the election Britain’s exit from the European Union, publicly calling on others to take after Britain and follow its approach into abandoning Brussels. Although the US direction to dismantle the European Union is old, but what is new in Trump’s policy is calling for it without any diplomatic cover, compelling the French President Hollande on 27/01/2017 to declare that the US President Trump is the biggest challenge facing the European Union. He said in a speech on the sidelines of the Summit of the European Union countries and the countries of the Mediterranean basin, Hollande said “when we hear statements about Europe from the President of the United States, and when he talks about Brexit. Britain leaving the European Union as a model for other European countries, I think it is our duty to respond.” (Russia Today, 28/01/2017)
2- Trump does not hide his admiration for Britain, the (US President Donald Trump praised the “very special relationship” between his country and Britain, saying during a meeting with British Prime Minister Theresa May that “A free and independent Britain is a blessing for the world.” (AlJazeera Net, 28/1/2017). Before that he had promised the British Independence Party leader Nigel Farage to bring back Churchill’s statue to the White House, which was removed by Obama, and he did return it, this British party leader was the first foreign official to meet President-elect in Trump Tower after the announcement of his victory
In confirmation of this American direction towards Britain Trump said during a joint press conference with Prime Minister May and Trump said that “The special relationship between the two countries is one of the greatest powers in history in order to achieve justice and peace. Today, the United States renews its strong and deep ties with Britain, on all military, financial, cultural and political levels. We pledge to provide support and uphold this very special relationship”. (BBC, 28/01/2017)
3 – The new British post Brexit policy and Trump’s win, can be summarized as Britain is preparing itself for new directions unrestrained to the European Union, after Britain’s referendum to leave the Union 23/06/2016, and is therefore looking and searching in all directions to revive the international politics of Britain, and when Trump won in America 8/11/2016 Britain viewed him as a great opportunity for it, in terms of his little political experience and his promises of change and slogans. And this explains Theresa May, Prime ministers of Britain, being the first leader to meet the new president Trump in Washington on 27/01/2017, and started advising him especially on the Russian issue, and to offer a joint deal to fight Daesh in Syria, namely placing Britain next to America internationally once again.
4- The convergence of new trends in the UK with the orientations of Trump’s administration, altered America’s supreme interest towards making Britain’s exit out of the EU a role model, but this trend has requirements, like the signing of important trade agreements with Britain envied by the Union, and to highlight the international role of Britain, as a reward if it becomes the node that is helps to abrogate the European Union. This is perceivable from the orientation of both the British and American sides. Trump reiterated his support for the decision of Britain’s exit from the European Union, while May hoped to reach a quick trade agreement with Washington that will contribute to easing Breixt effects. (Al-Jazeera Net, 28/1/ 2017)
Fourth: As for how to explain the escalation of violent and brazen attack of Trump on Islam and Muslims, we mention the following things:
1- The attack on Islam and Muslims is not only from Trump, but is from the all the Western rulers, each has his own style, some of whom cover up their hatred… For example, Obama at the beginning of his term visited the capitals of Muslim countries (Indonesia, Egypt, and Turkey), and showed a softer tone towards Muslims, but his repeated attacks on Muslim countries and the death toll especially by drones strikes against the Muslim countries, might be more than what other rulers perpetrated, but Trump showed a strong and open attack holding nothing back, since beginning of his term and even long before his inauguration … Thus, the grudging crusaders’ gaze towards Islam and Muslims is the same in America and the West in general.
2- The United States and the West understand that the Muslims have no state to look after their affairs and strongly fight back those countries if they attacked Islam and Muslims, these countries are also aware that the rulers in Muslim countries are not loyal to Islam as much as they are loyal to the Kaffir colonizers, i.e., they do not stand in the face of America and the West in defense of Islam and Muslims, instead they sometimes, even in most of cases, are hostile to Islam, nearly as much as the Kaffir colonizers are hostile to Islam, and therefore there is nothing to deter the West and America if they violently attack Islam and Muslims, thus they dare to further escalate their aggression without considering any repercussions for that.
3- When the Muslims had a state, and there shall be one soon be by Allah’s will, they were a righteous power upholding the truth to be reckoned with, thus the iniquitous and tyrants would not dare to attack Islam and Muslims, and they ever made such mistake of violating Islam and Muslims, the response would be such one that tears them apart and make an example out of them for generations to come. The facts of history pronounce this, and the Kaffir colonialists know this very well, so they are exerting their utmost effort to stop the return of the state of the Muslims, the righteous Khilafah, that will pronounce the truth and nullify falsehood, this fact is undeniable to anyone with sight and insight. For example, when a Roman man in the outskirts of the Muslim country dared to attack a Muslim woman, she shouted “O Mu’tasim”, the Caliph led an army himself and did not allow anyone else to lead it, and he marched to that Roman man’s territory and punished him and his entire country and conquered that land and spread the good and removed the evil. Also the ruler of Sindh when he raided a ship carrying Muslim women and took them as prisoners, the Caliph sent to his Wali commanding him to punish that tyrant ruler, so Muhammad Bin Qasim led an army and saved the Muslim women and punished the tyrant ruler and conquered Sindh.
And the author of the novel that spoke ill of the Prophet ﷺ, who tried to display the novel in one of the theaters in Britain, but Britain – which was great at the time – refused, and sent a formal apology to the Embassy of the Ottoman Empire in London … thus were the Muslims when they had a state, Trump or any other tyrant on earth would not have dared to utter with their tongues any such effrontery or move their feet intending any little bit of abuse against Islam and Muslims, otherwise their tongues will be cut and feet will be broken… today the Qur’an is desecrated and the Prophet ﷺ is insulted, and the Muslims’ countries are attacked, yet there is no response to this aggression! And this is only due to the absence of the Imam, the righteous Caliph who with his hands, Allah willing, will achieve what is in the saying of the Prophet ﷺ in the authentic Hadith narrated by Bukhari and Muslim from Abu Hurayrah (ra):
«إِنَّمَا الْإِمَامُ جُنَّةٌ، يُقَاتَلُ مِنْ وَرَائِهِ، وَيُتَّقَى بِهِ»
“Verily the Imam is like a shield, from behind him one shall fight, and by him one shall take cover”,
And this is easy for Allah to be achieved; the days will see changing situations:
وَتِلْكَ الْأَيَّامُ نُدَاوِلُهَا بَيْنَ النَّاسِ
“And these days [of varying conditions] We alternate among the people”
(Al-i-Imran: 140)
Islam has its men, who shall confirm what they have pledged to Allah, their resolve will not weaken, nor will they be stand down except when the promise of Allah Almighty is achieved on their hands and they establish the righteous Khilafah after this forced rule as stated in the authentic Hadith narrated by Ahmad and At-Tayalisi and in the pronunciations of At-Tayalisi: Huthaifa said: the Messenger of Allah ﷺ said:
«…ثُمَّ تَكُونُ جَبْرِيَّةً، فَتَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللَّهُ أَنْ تَكُونَ، ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا، ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةٌ عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ»…
“… and then it will be an oppressive (rule), it will remain for as long as Allah wills, then Allah will remove it if He so wills, and then there will be a Khilafah on the Method of Prophethood”
And Allah is Mighty and Wise
8th Jumada I 1438 AH
5/2/2017 CE