Analysis, Central Asia, Side Feature

Putin’s Visit to the Central Asian Countries

On 28 February 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded his visit to the countries of Central Asia. He met with the presidents of Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. There held the special talks with each president relating exactly to the country and to its problems. To understand the goals and results of this tour one needs to go a little deeper into the problems of these countries and understand the nature of their relations with Russia.

Kazakhstan is one of the most loyal countries to Russia in the region. It is connected with Russia both economically and politically. The largest number of Russian-speaking people live in Kazakhstan, so its integration into Russian projects is easier than with other countries in Central Asia. Kazakhstan is a member of the SCO, the CSTO and the EAEC. It is also worth noting that as many as seven thousand Russian enterprises have branches in Kazakhstan. All this indicates a strong connection between Russia and Kazakhstan.

At the meeting between Putin and Nazarbayev, it was possible to notice Russia’s plans to strengthen Kazakhstan’s participation in the EAEC. After all, in recent years when oil prices fell and the ruble weakened, this naturally affected the national currency of Kazakhstan. The people of Kazakhstan felt the negative consequences of membership in the EAEC, as a result of which there was some resentment about this union. That’s why at the meeting with Nazarbayev Putin said that the bank of the EAEC confirmed to Kazakhstan the projects worth billions of dollars, indicating that the relations between Kazakhstan and Russia will be even stronger. As a result, we heard Nazarbayev’s words that they have no claims and questions to the Russian side and will stay the course of Russia.

Tajikistan is another country that subordinates to Russia. Tajikistan is also dependent on Russia both economically and politically. Due to the small amount of Russian-speaking population in Tajikistan, Russia’s influence in this respect is different than in Kazakhstan. In addition, the Tajik people are much less integrated than the people of Kazakhstan. Therefore, Russia’s main levers for Tajikistan are economic and military. Almost half of Tajikistan’s GDP depends on the money of migrant workers who send the money to their families – Putin stressed it when he met Rahmon. The problem of migrants from Tajikistan is also very acute in Russia, whose authorities use the worker as the strongest lever of influence. Russia is trying to drag Tajikistan into the EAEC, but has not yet achieved any success in this and Tajikistan remains only a member of the SCO and the CSTO.

Kyrgyzstan, being although under the strongest influence of Russia, is still the most fragile country in Central Asia in terms of changing the political situation. Now the situation got once again heated, recently one of the opposition members was arrested. It is obvious that Russia “tightens the screws” in the country and follows closely the events in the country to prevent a new “Tulip Revolution”. At the end of 2017 the presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan will be held, at which Atambaev will not run again and, obviously, Russia is preparing its man like Atambaev for this post. Atambaev obediently fulfills all the requirements of Russia, as, for example, it happened with the extension of the deadline of presence of the Russian military base in Kant. Also, Atambaev introduced the country into the EAEC. Today, Kyrgyzstan is further integrated into Russian economic, military and educational projects. Unfortunately, the educational projects in Kyrgyzstan are being implemented quite successfully.

Putin did not visit Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. He had a phone talk with the head of Turkmenistan and expressed his hope for a face-to-face meeting in the future. Uzbekistan, which for a long time under the rule of Karimov maintained a balance between Russia and the United States, is not a member of either the CSTO or the EAEC, but at the same time is the key country in the region, and therefore this country is especially important for a foreign policy in Central Asia. The death of Karimov and the coming to power of the more loyal to Russia Mirziyoyev played in favor of Russia. In general, the Central Asian region includes five countries: Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan. This region is a vital buffer zone for Russia. Russia understands that if it misses at least one of the countries of Central Asia from its control, it will entail the deplorable geopolitical consequences for it. Since the collapse of the USSR, America has been trying to cut these countries from Russia by subjugating them under its influence.

We ask Allah (swt) to give us the strength to awaken the Muslims of Central Asia and of the whole world, to avert the machinations of the colonialists and to make us happy by His help to eliminate the countries of disbelief from our lands by means of the reestablishment of the Second righteous state Khilafah (Caliphate) by the method of Prophethood.

 

Mubin Abu Dawud

Written for Ar-Rayah Newspaper – Issue 123