News Watch, Side Feature, South Asia

Is Pakistan’s Nuclear Deterrence the Next Red Line, to be Crossed?

“Pakistan and the IAEA will increase collaboration in peaceful applications of nuclear science and technology, particularly in agriculture and medicine, to the benefit of the country and its neighbours. That was the outcome of Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi’s two-day trip to Pakistan this week, during which he met with the country’s leadership — including its Prime and Foreign Ministers — and visited numerous nuclear facilities across the country, some of which he inaugurated.” (Source IAEA website)

The extensive itinerary and projection of the IAEA’s Director General visit to Pakistan in February 2023, is unsettling.  It is as if Pakistan’s rulers were seeking IAEA’s approval of our nuclear program.  It is clear that our rulers are committed to the Bajwa doctrine, of giving India a sense of security, by replacing deterrence messaging, with a narrative of peaceful uses of nuclear technology. Following the style of Musharraf of crossing red lines, whilst invoking the next red line, worse is expected. The rollback of the deterrence narrative may be followed by nuclear disarmament if the Khilafah (Caliphate) is not established soon.

Let us consider the red lines that have been crossed. After 9/11, when the late General Pervez Musharraf crossed a red line regarding Afghanistan. He covered his treachery with the argument that the nuclear assets, Kashmir and the economy will be saved. He then crossed another red line, by cracking down on the mujahideen in Kashmir, on the plea that the nuclear assets and the economy will be saved.

Red lines continue to be crossed. Apprehension increased when the colonialists placed Pakistan in the grey list of FATF, with a threat of turning placing it on the black list. Caving into pressure, Pakistan’s rulers starved all support for the Muslims of Occupied Kashmir, from Pakistan. They did so at the cost of surrendering Kashmir to the Hindu State, when Modi forcibly annexed it in August 2019. It is a fact that has even been acknowledged by the ruling circles. After crossing this red line, the rulers then said that the economy will be safe.

Now it is Pakistan’s economy that is crashing due to the rulers caving into colonialist economic dictates, including currency devaluation, interest payments, rising prices of fuel and energy and increased taxation. After this red line has also been crossed, people are now discussing the next red line, which is nuclear assets.

It was in this atmosphere in which the IAEA visited Pakistan. The people of Pakistan were alarmed at the extent of the visit, as well as its time. It came after President Joe Biden Biden, while addressing a Democratic Congressional fundraiser in October 2022, said that Pakistan “may be one of the most dangerous nations in the world” for possessing “nuclear weapons without any cohesion.”

The people of power must move now to prevent the next red line being crossed. Nothing less than their establishing the Khilafah (Caliphate) on the Method of the Prophethood will prevent that. The Khilafah will replace the doctrine of minimum deterrence, with full-spectrum dominance. It will not beg the Western global order for international legitimacy of our nuclear program. Instead it will incite fear in their hearts.

Engineer Shahzad Shaikh
Deputy to the Spokesman of Hizb ut Tahrir in Wilayah Pakistan