The following is an extract from Khilafah.com’s annual publication, Strategic Estimate 2014.This section analysis some of the key geopolitical events of 2014. The full book can be downloaded here.
US Afghan withdrawal deadline, December 2014 – After more than a decade of war the US is scheduled to withdraw its troops from the country. This drawdown is deceiving, in the fact that what is really taking place is a reorientation of America’s military footprint in the nation. The US-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership agreement in 2012 allows the US to access Afghan facilities beyond 2014, grants the US permission to maintain a number of military bases beyond 2014 and a non-commitment to any specific troop levels or funding levels in the future. US officials have already announced that combat troops will be reduced to 10,000, and their titles changed to trainers rather than combat troops. These troops will also include Special Operation Forces (SOF). They will train and support the Afghan security services in maintaining the architecture the US has created. The US was able to maintain a high level of situational awareness in the country due to the large military footprint. This allowed it to have multiple military bases, SOF’s and security personnel who could respond to threats well before they grew into serious problems. By reducing their presence this level of situational awareness will not remain and a serious challenge to the US created architecture may ensue.
Scottish independence, September 2014 – On Thursday, September 18th 2014, Scotland decides whether to leave the United Kingdom and become an independent nation, the last time that happened was 1707. The Scottish people voted in favour of a Scottish parliament in 1997 and within a decade full impendence had taken hold amongst Scots. In 2012 the UK government legislated for a referendum which is now set for September 14th 2014. The economic crisis has affected opinion for Scottish impendence, but with public opinion evenly split, if successful this will give fuel to other regions in Europe who are looking to secede. This will also completely undermine British efforts to integrate minorities at a time when their loyalty is being questioned.
Catalonia independence – Catalonia announced in late 2013 its intention to have a referendum to secede from the unitary state of Spain. This is due to take place in December 2014. The economic crisis is leading to some regions calling for greater autonomy from central government. Catalonian nationalism has been exacerbated by the European crisis. Elections in November 2012 led to the pro-independence parties in the regional government of Catalonia increasing their share of seats, Catalonian political parties promised a referendum upon victory and this raised serious concerns for the unity of Spain, one of the largest countries in the Eurozone. Catalonia also includes Spain’s economic hub – Barcelona. A number of separatist regions believe the deficit driven economic policies of the Madrid government is failing and would prefer to go it alone.
New Turkey President, August 2014 – Turkey’s president will for the first time be directly elected by the people and not parliament. Incumbent Abdullah Gul cannot stand as there is a three term limit. For the moment the presidential post in no way match the executive privileges that came with being the prime minster, however it holds a symbolic position in Turkey in that Mustafa Kemal the founder was President. The rules of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) limit Erdogan to three terms as prime minister, and he reaches that deadline in June 2015. Erdogan’s supporters have talked of rewriting Turkey’s constitution to give the presidency greater powers. Erdogan has stated he would stand for the president if his party asks him, thus holding both prime minster and presidential posts for a few months. Erdogan has weakened the armies grip on power and used the state security to suppress opposition to his pro-US agenda, but with the president lacking executive power a constitutional change will be needed if he runs for president. This requires the drafting of a new constitution, which has to be passed through parliament with at least a three fifths majority and then successfully passed via a public referendum. The AKP currently are 3 seats short of 330 to propose constitutional changes to a referendum without the support of other parties in parliament. With the very public falling out with Fatah Gullan and now opposition from within the AKP, 2014 will be a test of Erdogan’s grip on power.
Pashtuns 42%
Tajiks 27%
Hazarah’s 10%
Uzbeks 9%
New Afghan President, April 2014 – Afghanistan’s most critical moment will take place in 2014 as a new president will be chosen to succeed Hamid Karzai who has dominated Afghanistan after the overthrow of the Taliban by US forces. Karzai lacked much authority beyond Kabul and relied on US troops in the South of the country and for his own personal security. The next president will have an even more daunting task. Due to the countries factious ethnic landscape no single group has a majority. All these groups are also internally divided. The Afghan political architecture is dominated by leaders of groups who fought both the Communists and Taliban. Due to their numbers a Pushtun has the best chances of winning but will not just need the support of his own ethnicity but also of another to gain a majority. All candidates have been appointing running mates from the other ethnicities to secure enough votes. Abdullah Abdullah is best placed as he is partly Pashtun and also Tajik due to his maternal lineage, he was close to the Tajik leader Ahmed Shah Masood and was runner up in the 2009 election. Current foreign minister Zalmal Rassul who is Karzai’s favoured replacement. But he will need votes from the other ethnicities in order to win. Ultimately the presidential election will come down to Abdullah and Rassul. With the US drawdown and negotiations with the Taliban going nowhere, it will come to the new president to maintain the US constructed architecture.
Iraq Elections, April 2014 – Iraq will hold its third post Saddam Hussain national election in 2014. The US planned from the outset to dominate Iraq by ensuring the de facto partition of the country into three autonomous, ethnically, divided territories for Sunni’s, Kurds and Shi’ah. This division has turned the countries fractious politics into competition power, resources and state institutions. For the US, as long as the factions are fighting each other the US constructed political architecture remains in place. In the 2010 election it took 8 months of fractious negotiations to form a government and even then the Iraqi National Movement, led by former Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, which won the election lost out to the State of Law Coalition, led by Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki. Today, political and military power in Iraq is highly centralized in Nouri Al-Maliki’s personal office. If He wins a third term the other factions may resort to violence which could bring into the question the US constructed system.
India Elections, April – May 2014 – More than 700 million people will head to over 800,000 polling stations and use more than 1.3 million voting machines to cast votes for more than 1,300 political parties (Not all parties are on every ballot. Most of them are local or regional rather than national in reach). The Congress Party hold on a decade long term is waning as the BJP routed the Congress Party in assembly elections, in December 2013 in five Indian states. Narendra Modi, Chief Minister of Gujrat will most likely run against Rahul Gandhi, the great grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru for prime minister. With India’s economic development faltering, corruption and nepotism characterising Congress rule and with the US drawdown in the region in full motion it is the nation’s internal challenges rather than foreign policy that will shape the new prime minister.
Additive Printing, 4-D printing – Additive manufacturing, more commonly known as 3-D printing is now beginning to take over more traditional forms of manufacturing. In this process machines deposit layers upon layers of material in three dimensional design created by a computer generated model. Near the end of 2013 the universality of Colorado-Boulder announced they had taken this one step further by producing 4-D composite materials. 4-D adds transformation to 3-D printing, where materials change when subjected to conditions such as heat or water. Both 3-D and 4-D printing could create self-assembling structures where traditional construction may be difficult. The trends that could develop from this include complex products which were assembled from numerous parts could all be printed from a single computer. These parts can be much lighter then parts using conventional methods, also waste can be completely reduced. The use of this type of printing would remove the need to maintain stocks, it was also help in remote locations. This development has the prospect to completely revolutionise manufacturing as we know it.
Naval use of Laser Guns – Following several years of research and development, Solid State Laser (SSL) weapons will be deployed to the US Navy. The tubular Laser Weapon System (LaWS) is a solid-state laser, which emits high-powered beams and can be fired at distances of four miles, hitting targets moving at 300 mph. This exceptionally accurate system can protect against anti-ship missiles, as well as shooting down drones and other flying vehicles. It is cheaper than conventional Cruise missiles and Ballistic missiles, with a single shot costing under $1, compared to the hundreds of thousands of dollars required to fire a missile. With China aggressively laying claim to Islands of the South China Sea and in a time of budget constraints, the timing of his deployment will strengthen the US military. The weapon had been scheduled for deployment in 2016, but is now ready two years earlier than planned. In the next decade, they will evolve into railguns with more range and power.
Syria – After three years, the bloodiest uprising within the Arab Spring has claimed over 100,000. The US and the international community have been colluding in silence with the Syrian regime, trying hard, but thus far to no avail, to establish an opposition umbrella that controls the rebels on the ground. Some divisions did emerge during 2013 with the Jihadi factions from Iraq taking over Jabatul Nusra. With Hizbullah and Iran intervening to prop up the al-Assad regime divisions within the rebels groups will weaken the offensives on Damascus.
US-Iran Rapprochement – The normalisation of ties between both countries was one of the most important developments of 2013. There still remain many issues that need to be resolved for relations to be fully restored. Iran’s support for Hizbullah, US support for Israel, US support for proxy groups in the region against Iran and Iran’s campaign to target key Israeli personnel throughout the region. Much of these discussions will take place in secret, however they will affect relations between both countries on a multitude of issues, including Syria and Palestine.