Turkey’s parliament authorised military operations against Syria on Thursday 4th October 2012 and its military immediately fired into Syria, sending salvos of artillery rounds deep into Syria. This was after five civilians in a Turkish border town were killed by Syrian shelling.
Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay said parliament’s authorisation was not a declaration of war on Syria but gave Turkey the right to respond to any future attacks from Syria. “The bill is not for war, It has deterrent qualities.”
In June, Turkey reinforced its border with anti-aircraft missiles and threatened to target any approaching Syrian military elements after Syrian forces brought down a Turkish jet, killing its two pilots. Turkey said the plane was in international airspace, countering Syrian claims that it was in Syrian airspace.
The crisis in Syria has dragged on for over 18 months with matters now at a stalemate. This is a significant development because the opposition lacks heavy weaponry and command and control structure, but has still managed to draw the al – Assad regime into a situation where it is unable to end the uprising.
This stalemate has been recognised by all and worried the US as it initially believed al – Assad would be able to quell the uprising. The bombing of the national security headquarters in July 2012 shocked US policy makers as it confirmed the capability and reach of the opposition had reached the capital city. A flurry of statements by US officials followed stating that intervention was on the table and may now be necessary to stop a civil war and chemical weapons falling into the wrong hands.
So after 18 months of not intervening, all of a sudden intervention was on the table. Clearly showing the US was shocked and understood that it had failed to halt the tsunami of change hurtling towards Damascus, and more worrying, the ummah may actually over throw the regime, without external help.
The response of the Muslim rulers has been even worse. Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and recently Egypt all have the capability to end the conflict within hours but all have worked to protect the interests of other global powers. Such countries backed the original Arab League observer mission which stood by when al – Assad carried out his massacres. They then backed the Kofi Annan UN mission, which just gave al – Assad more time and political cover to carry out massacres. Such countries have participated in contact groups, friends of Syria conferences and housed some of the opposition. In summary they have been the tools to implement US and European plans.
Turkey’s inaction
In the case of Turkey its actions should have been to decisively bring an end to the conflict rather then undertaking some token acts. The Ummah of Syria does not need tents or safe zones, they need the brutal dictator Bashar al – Assad removed and the country liberated. Turkey who shares a border with Syria has been playing a role in the crisis, which stops liberation. Turkey’s position on many of its recent problems has fallen short of what it should have done.
Turkey’s role in the world has been parallel to its economic development. The two issues cannot be separated form each other. In fact Turkey’s ambition in the world is directly linked to driving its economy. Erdogan has used his apparent political ambition of ‘zero problems with its neighbors’ to conclude economic deals and secure lucrative deals for his support base that replaced a business class that was loyal to the country’s army. Turkey under Erdogan has got involved in multiple regional issues in order to search for opportunities for Turkey, where its gets success it consolidates, where it finds resistance it withdraws and searches for new opportunities. Thus its ambition is for Turkey alone not for the whole Ummah.
The AKP government has not worked independently on any issue or constructed political plans but rather worked within the international system to execute plans developed by other powers. On the two state solution – A US plan, Turkey engaged in indirect negotiations with Palestine and Israel and has held numerous conferences to progress the two state solution. In its region the Erdogan led government has attempted to normalise relations with Armenia and secure economic deals in the Caucuses in order to dominate the region. This is also a region the US wants to act as a buffer against Russian expansion. On energy security nothing has been developed that enriches Turkey, but rather the development of various pipelines has been determined by the EU and Russia. Working to implement the plans of others is what leads to incidents where ones citizens are killed in a flotilla trip and even a response proportionate to the offence is not undertaken due to global public opinion. Interestingly if Turkey had killed Israeli citizens on a flotilla the response form them would have been much different to that of Turkey.
Merely playing a role in international issues is what leads to lots of talk but little in the way of action. This has been the history of Turkey under the AKP. Such a strategy will eventually unravel as it becomes apparent that what is said is very different to what is being done. What is needed is the changing of the international situation and that requires the crafting of policies which extend beyond ones borders and people. For Turkey this would be reunifying the whole ummah.
Turkey could very easily end the conflict in Syria if it wanted. Providing a safe haven for the Free Syria Army (FSA) in the country has allowed it to monitor FSA capabilities and ensure heavy weaponry doesn’t make its way to them. This has allowed the US as was highlighted by the Telegraph to make contact with such individuals and gain loyalty in return for weapons. “An underground network of Syrian opposition activists is receiving training and supplies of vital equipment from a combined American and British effort to forge an effective alternative to the Damascus regime. Dozens of dissidents have been ferried out of Syria to be vetted for foreign backing.” Recruits face “two days of vetting designed to ensure that the programme does not fall into the trap of promoting sectarian agendas or the rise of al-Qaeda-style fundamentalists.”
Turkish Intervention
Assad has resorted to using the republican guard and the 4th armoured division as the rest of the army is largely Sunni and cannot be trusted. Turkish intervention would be facing anything between 20,000 – 80,000 personnel. Turkey can draw upon army personnel of over a million and would only need to occupy Damascus and Aleppo, to bring the conflict to an end. As Turkey shares a border with Syria it will not have long supply lines and could quickly resupply troops whenever needed. The sheer size of Turkish armed forces would quickly overwhelm al – Assad’s defences. It is also very likely that mass defections would take place in the face of a Turkish onslaught leading the capitulation of the al – Assad regime. Turkey makes its own Armoured Personnel Carriers (APC) and tanks, whilst Syria has no indigenous defence industry to speak about. Syria would suffer form huge resupply efforts as it reliant on foreign supplies to replace destroyed equipment, Turkey’s production facilities can continue to roll out APC’s and tanks as the battle progressed.
A ground assault combined with an air assault would disable Syria’s SAM batteries – which are surface to air missiles. Turkey has indigenously developed its own unmanned aerial vehicles, which could take out and overwhelm Syria’s missile defence system. Alongside this Turkey has 800 combat aircraft of which 350 are F15 falcon fighting jets Capable of 9g manoeuvres and speeds in excess of Mach 2, this would be no match for al-Assad’s Soviet era MiG’s made in the 1960’s.
Turkey’s Southern bases in Diyarbakır, Milatya would be the command and control centers for such an operation and combat planes could fly from bases in Konya, the drone base in Batman and Erkilit would provide air support. The Incirlik Air Base would fly multiple sorties to take control of Syria’s airspace.
A crucial difference between the air combat capability of Syria and Turkey is that Turkey has modern support systems in place for the planes it flies with the result that a high proportion of aircraft are available for operations at any given time.
Conclusions
It should be clear to all that negotiations have in reality kept Assad in power. The time for talking ended when al – Assad began his brutal crackdown. What is needed by Turkey is to prove that it has teeth in its foreign policy and also has the ummah’s interests at heart and bring a swift end to the brutal crackdown of Basher al- Assad. Merely providing tents and calling for a buffer zone is in reality calling for Assad to remain. Turkey has the capability and the history from the Uthmani Khilafah on its side to carry out such an operation it now just needs to live up to this.