Details have not for the first time resurfaced again of a possible air attack on Iran’s nuclear installations. These specific leaks have emerged from the forthcoming International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report, which is due imminently. Whilst I have addressed the Iran-US nuclear stand-off previously, with an up-tick in rhetoric I thought it would appropriate to revisit the issue.

It should be remembered that the current intensification all takes place around the IAEA’s report which will apparently say more explicitly than previous IAEA assessments that Iran is indeed actively pursuing a nuclear programme.

There is a regular escalation of rhetoric each time a report is on the verge of release on Iran’s nuclear programme. Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is not new and in fact has been under way since the 1960’s. Iran has for the moment not tested a nuclear device, because building a Nuclear weapon requires a comprehensive commitment from any nation for its national resources to be deployed in such a manner. It is not just about one faculty, it needs an industrial base. A nuclear program requires long term facilities, which are very energy intensive, years of experimentation, fissile material and high grade industrial machinery.

The Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) was carved out in 1968 and Iran became a signatory in 1970. It is well known that Iran under the Shah had begun its nuclear activity in collaboration with French and German companies.

Khomeini halted Iran’s nuclear activity in 1979, whilst Rafsanjani, when he came to power resumed Iran’s nuclear programme in 1995. The nuclear programme continued during the reformist period (1997-2005) under Khatami. It was in 2003, after the occupation of Iraq that a number of exiled Iranian’s made public that Iran was pursuing a secret and unsafe nuclear programme and was hiding the programme from the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Based on this, the chief of IAEA, Mohammed el Baradai prepared a report and presented it to the IAEA. This is when the Iranian Nuclear Crisis gained momentum.

During the rule of Khatami in 2003 an ‘additional protocol’ was signed which allowed, IAEA inspectors to carry out checks without notice as Iran could be hiding a number of installations during planned and scheduled inspections.

Iran ceased Uranium enrichment for the sake of negotiations. However the Troika’ of Germany, France and Britain refused to guarantee Iran’s right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Iran therefore resumed its uranium enrichment programme.

The US, since this crisis began has done everything it can to sabotage a possible solution. Whilst the European ‘Troika’ are engaged in negotiations with Iran to find a solution to the problem, the US has constantly delayed a possible solution. Whenever the negotiations reached a point of near-solution, US officials would issue a statement with an implied warning that the US had all options open to it – even after the Troika made progress on a solution. The nuclear issue achieves a number of regional interests for the US. Firstly it shows Iran that the US is prepared to use other means if it does not play ball. The bellicose language has also helped the US aggressively push its missile shield programme in face of stiff Russian opposition. Additionally, it enabled the US to enter into security pacts with the Gulf States who view Iran as a threat to their security and to acquire nuclear energy from the US. It has also forced the Israelis into a security pact with the US.

The current uptick in rhetoric is being driven by Israel and those on the right of the political spectrum in the US who have always viewed the use of US military personal and equipment to as the best means to control Iran. Israel has consistently taken an aggressive stance towards Iran, as an Iranian state with nuclear weapons completely alters the balance of power in the region away from Israel.

Any attack on Iran would require a surprise attack covering a large area. The problem with any attack on Iran is that Iran has numerous tools at its disposal. Iran can cause significant problem for the US in Iraq through its proxies especially as the US attempts to withdraw its troops. Iran’s ballistic missile’s can target both American and Israeli targets across the region and many missiles will likely be launched before all their mobile launchers can be pinpointed and destroyed by the US let alone Israel.

Iran’s best deterrent is its ability to conduct guerrilla warfare in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran can deploy naval mines, shore-based anti-ship missiles and small boat swarms. This would have a much wider impact then a military conflict because when 40% of the world’s oil trade is disrupted the financial markets would go into freefall, ushering in another global recession. This is Iran’s real nuclear option.

Aside from all the rhetoric, the US and Iran have cooperated on a number of issues which has protected American interests in the region These include supporting Hamas and Hezbollah in the Levant, strengthening the Iraqi government through the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and stabilising Afghanistan. Official contact has gradually grown since the end of the Bush term. America has even snubbed Israeli previously to attack Iran. America played down Israel’s show of air power over the Mediterranean in November 2008 and has refused to sell the powerful GBU-29 bunker-busters bombs.

With regards the threat of crippling sanctions, no sanctions regime is water tight. The real vulnerability in the sanctions comes from Russia. Iran has become a major pressure point in Russia’s ongoing geopolitical tussle with the United States, and Moscow has signalled in a number of ways that it isn’t going to be shy about using its leverage with Tehran to turn the screws on Washington. Moscow has a list of core demands that revolve around the basic concept of the West respecting Russian influence in its former Soviet periphery. As long as the United States continues to rebuff these demands and write off Russia as a weak power, the Russians not only can refuse to participate in sanctions but they can also blow the entire sanctions regime apart. The more bogged down the United States is in the Islamic world, the more Russia weakens the US.

The debate about Iran being independent and potentially Islamic or even a Shi’ah state, Iran is nothing other then pragmatic without any consistent basis from where it derives it’s polices. Iran saved Iraq from becoming America’s Vietnam and whilst traditionally the reformists reached out to the West both the conservatives and the reformists are in bed with the US. The Muslims of the region and beyond have been manipulated before and served as US pawns to bring down the Soviet Union. Today, Obama and some of his advisors believe that this feat can be repeated against Russia and China. The Muslim Ummah must learn from its past experience and turn the tables on these major powers by re-establishing the Khilafah which will make these powers fight each other and raise high the Islamic banner over their destruction…inshAllah.