A number of analysts have described Turkey's recent assertiveness as a new resurgence with Turkey playing a leading role in a number of international issues. With the 15th largest economy in the world and a geographical location that has turned the country into a energy hub between the East and the West. Some have even used the term TRIC, rather than BRIC, which was originally coined by Goldman Sachs in a 2005 report when describing the new upcoming nations. Stratfor described Turkey's ascendency in the following way:
"Turkey, like Russia, is also on an ascendant path. Ankara is rediscovering its Ottoman-era influence after spending the past several decades as a geopolitical hermit. Its influence spreads across the Islamic world to the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia as well as through Eurasia in the Caucasus and the Balkans. What we have is a careful Turkish strategy that involves probing into its various surrounding regions, attempting to take advantage of potential opportunities. Where the Turks find resistance, they retreat. In places where they encounter little or no resistance, they advance. These very preliminary and exploratory moves will define Turkish attempts at geopolitical revival for some time to come."[1]
Turkey was a superpower previously when the Uthamni's managed to unite many of the lands around Western Turkey. They removed the Byzantine Empire as the world's superpower and menaced Europe for centuries. Since the destruction of the Khilafah elements within Turkey have worked to remove the nations Islamic roots, Turkey became aligned to the West, joined NATO, protected US aims during the Cold War and is attempting to join the European Union (EU). This article analyses Turkey's resurgence to asses is it real or a false dawn.
Caucuses
Turkey under the Uthmani Khilafah fought and lost a number of wars in the 18th and 19th centuries which led to the Uthmani's to cede territory to Russia. The collapse of the Uthmani Khilafah in 1924 led to a number of incidents with Armenia - which has come to be known as the Armenian massacre. This defined the hostile relations between the Caucasian nations and Turkey. Today both Russia and Turkey are working to gain a foothold in the region.
Turkey is currently in the middle of a lengthy process to normalize relations with Armenia. Normalising ties includes the opening the shared border. The talks have gone through a number of summits and rounds of talks, which has produced protocols both nations have signed. The protocols remained stuck in both Turkish and Armenian parliaments due to the resistance in both nations by certain elements. The outcome of such negotiations are intrinsically linked to Azerbaijan who wants the Nagorno-Karabakh territory to be resolved under any agreement between Armenia and Turkey.
The Nagorno-Karabakh territory was given independence in the dying days of the Soviet Union. It is a territory that both Armenia and Azerbaijan lay claim to. The territory continues to plague relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan as both have gone to war on a number of occasions over the territory. Currently negotiations are taking place between Azerbaijan and Armenia mediated by Russia. Russia's resurgence has meant that it is expanding its claws once again and working to Bring its former republics under its influence once again. The Caucuses is important to Russia as it acts as buffer zone between Russia and other regional powers. Russian influence and control over the nations that comprise the Caucuses prevents other powers from gaining a foothold in the region.
Azerbaijan has doubts over the importance Turkey places upon its claims to the territory. This has resulted in Azerbaijan turning to Russia's mediation. Russia has been able to play Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey off each other. This strategy by Russia also places an obstacle in the apparent ascendency of Turkey as it prevents it from a direct supply line to the energy of the Caspian Sea, which prevents Europe from accessing those resources as it attempts to circumnavigate around its dependence on Russia's energy.
In reality the Caucuses is a hot spot where a resurgent Russia is looking to bring its former republics under its influence and the creation a buffer zone to protect the Russia interior. Turkey in reality whether independently or by design is not just protecting US interests but also European interests. By forging relations with the nations of the region Turkey is attempting to complicate Russian interests, which is the US strategy in the region.
Energy
Turkey's geographic location has turned it into a conduit for energy. Straddling Europe and Asia, Turkey's Ports receive crude oil and natural Gas which is then refined and sold in the European market. Turkey has regularly advocated European energy projects, like Nabucco, that circumvent the Russian network. As one analyst put it: "The other more secure corridor for European energy diversification is Turkey - already an end point for two major pipelines from the Caspian. Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan supplies Europe with much needed alternative oil. But while Turkey has the potential to become an energy hub for Europe, there is much work left for the EU. The first order of business would be a diplomatic offensive to realize the Nabucco gas pipeline from Turkey to Austria through Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. This project would provide another key alternative route for Caspian resources to reach Europe to begin to ameliorate overdependence on Russia."[2]
Russia's use of its energy resources as a foreign policy tool has seen Ukraine, Lithuania and subsequently Europe being held hostage by the former world power. Europe and especially France and Germany's dependency on Russia's energy hydrocarbons has been exposed one too many times and Turkey currently represents the only immediate alternative to Russian energy dependency.
In the area of energy Turkish independence and manoeuvring is highly questionable when the West on many occasions has presented Turkey as the alternative to Russia. It appears Turkey is in reality protecting European energy interests and subsequently US interests in ensuring Russian influence doesn't gain any momentum.
Middle East
Turkey's role in the Middle East has been highly questionable and has all the hall marks of protecting the interests of other nations rather then projecting independent policies. Whilst Turkey is not part of the P5 + 1 nations who are attempting to construct a sanctions programme against Iran for enriching Uranium the US has reneged all deals and agreements that have been reached which has allowed the Iran nuclear issue to escalate to the level is has. This shows that the US has no intention of solving this conflict and it has actually ensured no solution is ever reached. The US achieves a number of its aims in the region through this diplomatic crisis. America has gained a strategic advantage by providing security to the Gulf Arab countries in the face of Iran's rhetoric; it has also nudged the Israelis into a security pact. Turkey and Brazil's nuclear fuel swap proposal to de-escalate the Iranian nuclear controversy took place on the same day when the US was tabling sanctions against Iran.
Similarly Turkish mediation between Syria and Israel in solving the Palestinian conflict is not a resurgent Turkey looking to shape the politics of the region according to its aims but rather it comes under US attempts to start indirect talks between Israel and the Muslim nations of the region to normalise relations after a decade of no progress on the peace process and as the US attempts to extricate itself from Iraq and Afghanistan
Justice and Development Party (AKP)
Whilst many have contended the Islamic credentials of the AKP party are at the root of Turkey's resurgence, the reality shows that Islam has no place in AKP's attempt to forge a role for Turkey in the world. Ever since Abdullah Gul and Erdogan left the Virtue party and formed the Justice and Development Party under the leadership of Erdogan, who began to implement his policy of cementing ties with America in order to remove the the influence of Britain and its ties with the Army. Whilst many reforms have been introduced to break the armies hold on power the centre piece of the AKP's strategy was the Shared Vision Document signed between the Turkish and American government by Abdulla Gul and Condoleezza Rice on 5th July 2006, which proves beyond doubt that Turkeys global maneuvers are anything but Islamic or independent, but rather are the AKP party protecting US interests. The meeting confirmed: "The strategic vision document confirms Turkish-US consensus to translate our shared vision into common efforts through effective cooperation and structured dialogue." The AKP's manoeuvres today were clearly contained in the document, some of the terms the AKP agreed to carry out included:
1. Supporting international efforts towards a permanent settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict, including international efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the basis of a two-state solution
2. Supporting diplomatic efforts on Iran's nuclear program, including the recent P5+1 initiative
Contributing to stability, democracy and prosperity in the Black Sea region, the Caucasus, Central Asia and Afghanistan
3. Enhancing energy security through diversification of routes and sources, including from the Caspian basin
World Power
Throughout history global powers have developed independent policies and manoeuvred around the world in order to shape the world according to their vision. A nation that protected the interests of another power, as a satellite state, it may make a nation relevant but it in no way gives a nation permanent security. It is usually only a matter of time before another satellite nation comes along who will be more adapt at protecting the interests of the superpower.
Turkey should look at its history; from there it can learn how it became a superpower - the only time in its history. In 1453 the Uthmani's concluded the conquest of Constantinople, the Byzantine capital. This brought to an end all remnants of Roman rule, who had been the world's superpower for nearly four centuries. The Uthmani's were one of the many bands of Turkmen horsemen who began to come into the Islamic lands as a result of the Mongol invasions in the 13th century. These Turkmen warriors, who had converted to Islam, were sent to the frontiers of the state by the Seljuks, who themselves were of Turkish origin. They had excellent fighting skills and zeal, which the Seljuks wanted them to apply along the frontier with the Byzantines. The house of Uthman proved to be one of the most successful of these bands, taking many towns and villages from the control of the Byzantines, they then unified the other ghazis, under their banner, brought the lands surrounding Constantinople under Islam, culminating in the capture of Byzantine Empire capital - Constantinople in 1453.
The Uthmani's then swept through the Balkans and Eastern Europe in spectacular fashion. The important city of Thessaloniki was captured from the Venetians in 1387. In 1389, the kings of Austria, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Hungary attacked the Uthmani's but Sultan Murad I crushed them at Kosovo, which shocked Europe. In 1396, the whole of Europe including French and German armies fought against Sultan Bayazid Yaldram at Nicopolis but were comprehensively defeated and 20 rulers and dignitaries were brought to the Khaleefah's court as the captives. Sultan Bayazid had annexed all the territory from Bosnia to Danube. He had also conquered Greece (Athens) in 1398.
Before Suleiman al Qanooni's reign came to an end in 1566 he had expanded the Islamic frontiers well into Eastern Europe bringing Belgrade the capital of Serbia under Islam as well as regaining the Greek island of Rhodes. He had defeated Louis II of Hungary and Bohemia and brought most of Hungary under Islamic authority. By 1578 Georgia and what is today Romania was under Islam. Before the beginning of the 17th century the Uthmani's had brought Southern Italy, Hungary, Austria, Romania, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Albania, Malta, Cyprus, Croatia, Ukraine, the Canary Islands, parts of Iceland and the largest island of the Bristol waters in England, UK - Lundy under Islamic authority. Such was the perceived threat of the Uthmani Khilafah under the reign of Suleiman al Qanooni that ambassador Busbecq of the Austrian monarch Ferdinand I warned of Europe's imminent conquest: "On [the Turks'] side are the resources of a mighty empire, strength unimpaired, habituation to victory, endurance of toil, unity, discipline, frugality and watchfulness... Can we doubt what the result will be?...When the Turks have settled with Persia, they will fly at our throats supported by the might of the whole East; how unprepared we are I dare not say."[3]
Conclusions
Turkey has very limited energy resources, but because of its strategic location between Europe and Asia and between oil consumers and oil producers, it is crossed by several major oil and gas pipelines. Turkey's geographical location makes it a natural trans shipment route between the major oil producing areas in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus on the one hand, and consumer markets in Europe on the other. As a result Turkey has developed an advanced mineral processing industry and is a world leader in many key metals and chemicals. Turkey is also one of the world's largest agricultural producers.
Rather then protecting the needs of other nations, Turkey is in pole position to become a world power through pursuing an independent foreign policy. The current assertiveness many analysts describe as a resurgence, could not be further from the truth, this is because Turkey is only manoeuvring within the space the US has permitted it. Turkey's mediation in the Palestinian issue takes place when the US has decided indirect negotiations should take place on the final settlement. Similarly America's policy of containing Russia and pushing Russian assertiveness all the way back into Russian territory has seen Turkey play a leading role in the Caucuses to complicate Russian aims. Turkey's has been repaid by the US by the House Foreign Affairs Committee passing a resolution condemning Turkey for the apparent role of the Uthmani's in the Armenian Genocide. Whilst Turkey continues to reform itself in order to be welcomed into the international arena America continues to use Turkey for its aims and the European Union continues to delay Turkey's ambition to join the EU
[1] Republished with the permission of STRATFOR, Russia, Turkey: The Resurgent Powers' Wary Approach, June 25th 2009 and Turkey's Ongoing Resurgence, January 7th 2010, www.stratfor.com
[2] See http://www.henryjacksonsociety.org/stories.asp?id=435
[3] Lewis, Bernard (2002). What Went Wrong? : Western Impact and Middle Eastern Response
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Adnan
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The Muslim Ummah does not have a problem with population with 1.6 billion people, with over 60% under the age of 30, this gives it an immense advantage. It can quickly acquire the necessary technology, but countries such as Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan and have sufficient military technology to defend itself and with the right polices unite the Ummah. |
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Adnan
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We have to differentiate between economic development and a resurgent nation. This is because a resurgent nation is a policy built upon political aims and to do with having a role in the world. Economic development is different as it is not political policies but policies to do with creating growth and utilising ones resources. Hence a nation can develop economically and be a resurgent nation, such as Taiwan, Japan, and many of the far East nations, they have developed economically, but have no influence in the world Hence people in Turkey coming back to Islam has no role in this discussion. Secondly Islam is playing virtually no role in Turkey’s resurgence and it does not use Islam as a basis to determine its foreign policy – its deal with Israel to exchange military hardware which is used to kills Muslims, says it all. More fundamentally Turkey agrees with the US on a number of foreign policy issues, which were in reality US aims, in that context its resurgence is phony in that its not really its own. Whilst economic development is considered by many to be a long process history shows us this is not the case. The rapid rise of Germany pre-WW1 and pre-WW2 shows will global ambitions ones can develop very quickly. Similarly the Soviet Union developed very quickly. In both cases the nations in questions had global aims and were independent in there polices. |
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Rayouna
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I don't think its a 'phony' resurgence. Have you witnessed the change that has taken place there over the past decade? Subhan'Allah---people are coming back to Islam in droves, and not only in Turkey but all across the world. The effects of colonialism are still being shaken off, and as the last poster said, "It doesn't happen all in one day." |
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aa
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The whole christian world united against khilafat hence its destruction and pulling appart, that inclueds, Russian Empire as well as Hitlers Germany...Khilafat was helpess becouse it didn't have enough population or the technology to defend its borders and fight against rising Europe and America..So it lost, lessons must be taken from this all.. |
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Zeital
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TURN OF THE CENTURY (1790 – 1810) Around the beginning of the 19th Century the Uthmaani State still held expansive territories in North Africa (where the Bey of Tunis and Bey of Algiers had autonomy). Most of South East Europe (including Greece) was still under Uthmaani rule. Whilst the Russian Empire under Tsarina Catherine the Great had annexed the Crimean Khanate after 1792, many Tartar Muslims still resided in the region. Crucially the Uthmaani controlled the straits of the Bosporus (as the Byzantines once did). Imperial Russia’s long term objectives were to expand south towards the Mediterranean and also secure a passage to India. Russia also sought to gain a foothold in the Mediterranean, as the Russian Navy was constrained in the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, and only could be unimpeded off Siberia. When Russia fought the Japanese in 1905, the Russian Baltic Fleet had to circumnavigate the globe just to reach the Far East. RISE OF EUROPE AND RUSSIA After the end of the Napoleonic Wars in 1815 the European great powers (Great Britain, France, and Russia) eyed not only the Uthmaani State, but also Qing China (which limited foreign influence, particularly Anglo-French), and newly independent republics of Latin America. Under the Monroe Doctrine the U.S.A would regard European intrusion into the Western Hemisphere as an affront to its own security. This deterred both the French and British Empires from trying to colonise Latin America. Although France did invaded Mexico and almost added the country as a colony when America was distracted by the Civil War. British manufacturing had already been transformed by the Industrial Revolution which had been well underway since the early 1700’s. Belgium, France, Netherlands, and some German States underwent intense industrialisation from the early 1800’s. North Western Europe had immense deposits of coal, and Belgium became the hub of a railway network which rapidly spread into German and French industrial areas. Meanwhile the Russian Empire would lag behind in developing its industry well into the next century. The immense size of the Russian Empire proved to be an obstacle for mass industrialisation, instead this empire remained largely agricultural. Only under Soviet rule would industrialisation and developing resources be taken up in earnest. |
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Zeital
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BRITISH DOMINANCE The defeat of Napoleon Bonaparte resulted in unchallenged British primacy at sea and London remaining as the financial centre of Europe. Most of the world’s sea lanes and strategic ports which overlooked international trade were under control of the Royal Navy. This allowed a British trade monopoly to exist and grow at the expense of everyone else. France joined the British imperial project. Only the U.S.A which rapidly grew across the Great Plains and rapidly industrialised was able to fend for itself. Bengal, Orissa, and Southern India were under indirect British authority via the East India Company. Mysore became a client state and Hyderabad was an ally. Both were independent Indian states, which either remained neutral or cooperated with the East India Company. Britain sought to annex states neighbouring Bengal (such as Awadh) or expand against the Maratha Confederacy. India was devoid of a united leadership, since the collapse of Mughal authority left a power vacuum for the opportunistic East India Company to move into. British trade and expansionism in India made finding a naval route even more of an imperative. Hence the route via the Suez Canal became crucial. From the Cape of South Africa, Aden, Bengal, and Singapore, the British Navy had a network to control trade and impose its influence. Yet one large continuous empire that of Russia, remained outside British financial and diplomatic influence. Russians never trusted Britain, and had some astute leaders such as Tsar Alexander II who understood Anglo-French motives. ANGLO-RUSSIAN RIVALRY The Russian, French, and British schemed to weaken the Uthmaani authority in the Balkans. To this end they encouraged nationalist revolts amongst Balkan peoples. Austria-Hungary was also meddling in Serbia to effective make this Ottoman province an Austrian protectorate. Russia’s drive to the south saw the Caucasus being wrested from Ottoman and Persia rule. The Russians would fight long wars against the Chechens and Inguish throughout the 19th Century. The Anglo-Russo-French bombardment at Navarino resulted in the destruction of the Egyptian fleet. This guaranteed Greek independence, and paved the way for Russian attempts to break Uthmaani authority in the Balkans over the next 50 years. This culminated in the Russo-Turkish War of 1877 – 1878, which saw most of the Balkans become independent satellite states of either Russia or Austria-Hungary. EASTERN QUESTION The Ottoman State became the focus of the Eastern question. Whereas British, French, and Russian attempts to undermine Uthmaani authority came under different guises (outright Russian conquest or Anglo-French covert activities); the Uthmaanis became increasingly besieged from without and within. France was increasing its influence over Egypt’s rulers, and Britain supported the Al-Saud tribe who in turn lent their support to the Wahabi movement. The Crimean War mainly waged by a Franco-British alliance in support of preserving the Ottoman State against Russian encroachment. Also British traded many manufactured goods with the Ottomans, and furthermore Britain and France had objectives beyond containing Russia to outright attacking Russia itself. Hence a failed Anglo-French invasion of Siberia and attempts reduce Russia from a Great Power. Britain and France intervened against Sultan Ibrahim of Egypt when he threatened to overthrow Ottoman rule in Turkey itself. Even Russia warned Sultan Ibrahim against undermining Ottoman integrity. If the Ottomans could modernise like Egypt then the Europeans would have greater difficulty in destroying the Ottoman State. |
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Zeital
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From the Crimean War, the Ottomans were a primary British element in keeping Russian ambitions in check. Via the British Raj in India, British attempts to encircle Russia included Afghanistan and Persia as buffer states and expanding zones of influence in China. Russia would itself feel threatened by this encirclement and do countermoves in Central Asia, annexing the last remaining independent Sultanates and expand Russian zones of influence in Northern China. Before World War One, Britain changed its policy of supporting the Ottomans as a check against Russia to openly seeking to destroy the state via supporting insurrections and rebellions. Britain already was trying to expand into Persia, and occupied Cyprus and Egypt. Only Prussia (succeeded by Germany) and Austria-Hungary (now fearing Serbian Pan-Slavic nationalism) sought to preserve the Uthmaani State. PRESENT DAY The Turkish Republic supports American primacy in the region against regional powers such as Iran and more importantly Russia. Turkey allowed the stationing of missiles targeting the U.S.S.R during the Cold War, and was prepared to offer ground troops for an N.A.T.O offensive against what remained of Yugoslavia. As British policy sought to use the Ottomans against Russian interests during the 1800’s, so the U.S.A uses Turkey to constrain Russia today. Turkey would offer an alternative route for gas and oil pipelines outside of Russian territory. Turkey is also a major N.A.T.O partner, an ally of Israel, and hosts N.A.T.O bases. Whilst the Turkish army has brutalised the Kurdish populations, Britain and America has turned a blind eye and even supported these activities. The Anglo-American attempts to undermine and break-up Yugoslavia and then expand against Russian zones of influence in the Balkans and the Caucasus. An Anglo-American led N.A.T.O attack against Iran may well use Turkey as a staging post. The future independent Muslim leadership will need to assess the prevailing geopolitics and take stock of current events if it is to unravel and disentangle the prevalent injustice and contradictions of the past 150 years. Such leadership will have to contend with the fact that regions which were once staunch defenders of Islam may make up the armies that will fight a future sincere Islamic leadership. This is already being witnessed in the example of Pakistani military fighting with invaders against its own people and the Saudi army fighting against Yemeni rebels. Saudi will never fight to defend Muslims, but will allow its airbases for use against Iraq and Afghanistan, and hand over Yemen for U.S drones. The last desperate N.A.T.O gamble could be Iran. |
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tauhid
said:
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come forward to eradicate the munafek like kemal ataturk those who continue the action like ataturk done leave them alla is always with us . |
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turkish babur
said:
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do watch kurtlar vadisi irak - valley of the wolves iraq the best iraq war movie... |
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turkish babur
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president of turkey abdulley gul pretends to be secular. He is Islamic thats why he got angered at deawoo conference on the israeli pm. Ppl of turkey needs to be educated abt islam then more powerfull islamic party like SP (Shahadet partisi) who will not ban HT in turkey and Islamic revival will come fast. SP did came in power in 1996 but was removed by miltary coup in 1998 coz president necmettin erbekkan started G8 reunification of muslim (although not khilafah) world and supporting palestine. Turkish army is total freemasonic ruled by israeli agents zionists. They sent tanks to necmettin office and asked him to step down. Turkish muslims ppl think that SP coming in power adn their full mulitary support wud change the structure of the world and new ottoman empire wud come again. |
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Adnan
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The problem with Turkey is the trajectory of its resurgence. Rather then it being independent and self sufficient it is being largely driven to secure the interests of over powers. Whilst the economic situation has improved in Turkey, Turkey has the capacity to be a world power, as it once was in its history, it has the capacity to industrialise and construct the international situation rather then receiving the crumbs from another power. |
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aa
said:
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Well it doesn't all happen in one day. Everthing was much worse before AKP arrived. Both Britain and Israel was slaving this country, it's much much better than what it was and I do believe it will continue resurgence as it gets stronger. |
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