Europe

Russia’s Resurgence: Lessons for the Ummah

The election of Victor Yanukovych in Ukraine’s general election in February 2010 officially brings to an end the colour revolutions that came to symbolise the post-Soviet states. Whilst the opposition will in all likelihood contest the election result, the reign of the Orange revolution has now been reversed. Throughout the 2000’s the US through verbal support, through the funnelling of money to various student and revolutionary groups created the climate for regime change in order to bring pro-Western leaders to power and officially remove Russian influence in such states.

Regime change historically is through the use of a nation’s military in the form of a coup. Any attempt at overthrowing an existing government requires the support of the army as they physically have the power in most nations. The colour revolutions which began with the rose revolution in Georgia, then the Orange revolution in Ukraine where Victor Yanukovych’s victory was annulled due the role of various students groups in undermining his election victory. The Tulip revolution in Kyrgyzstan undermined the parliamentary election in 2005 and overthrew Askar Akayev. Each of these revolutions was led by nonviolent resistance and protests against governments seen as corrupt and authoritarian. Such revolutions are notable for the role of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and particularly student activists in organising creative nonviolent resistance.

21st Century Cold war

Many US policy makers saw the dismemberment of Russia as unfinished business. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the West led by the US began working to push its boundaries in Europe rapidly eastward, destroying Russia’s ability to influence the region. The pro-Western lines have continued moving to the east for the past two decades, via NATO and EU expansion, until they pushed hard up against Russia’s borders. With the collapse of the Soviet Union the US worked to dismantle the architecture established by the USSR, it worked to contain Russia by bringing all the former Soviet republics under its sphere of influence and for the next decade through the IMF and the World Bank it economically linked them to the West.

All this changed when Vladamir Putin succeeded Boris Yeltson in 1999. He was a nationalist who endeavoured to change the fortunes of Russia. Putin began the process of re-nationalising key sectors, assets, utilities and industries through policies intended to change the course of the nation. He dealt with the oligarchs who were looting the nation, by restricting the amount of money they took out of the nation; some were forced to contribute to the re-building of the nation such a Roman Abromovich, whilst other oligarchs were dealt with ruthlessly. He stabilised the domestic situation through economic policies which were only possible under a dictatorship – any parliament or senate would have stalled on such huge decisions and would have allowed their own interests to get in the way. Russia’s resurgence has brought it into direct political conflict with the US. In less then 10 years Russia has been transformed from a fallen animal stabbed in the back by its own people, to a lion roaring its way back to its old status.

Russian foreign relations are currently being driven on reversing the post cold war trend and securing Russia’s periphery by bringing all the former Soviet republics under its influence.

Russia has taken full advantage of America’s preoccupation with the Islamic world to reverse all the American sponsored colour revolutions. The project to bring all of the former Soviet republics under Russian influence has been a meticulous task led by Vladimir Putin. Any effort to change Russian expansion must be monumental if it is to succeed.

Through vision, ambition and strategic choices Russia has been able to change the status quo, this cannot be understated with regards to Ukraine. Ukraine is the Russian Empire’s breadbasket. It is also the location of nearly all of Russia’s infrastructure links not only to Europe, but also to the Caucasus, making it critical for both trade and internal coherence; it is central to the existence of a state as multiethnic as Russia.

The challenge Russia faced and to a large extent has reversed is reducing foreign influence in the former Soviet territories. Russia used its gas to choke western influence in its former territories which has made many pro-Western republics rethink their strategy to move out of Russia’s orbit.

Democracy promotion in practice relied heavily on the development of NGOs as autonomous groups reflecting the interests of civil society. NGO’s were clearly Western backed and subsequently the Putin regime intensified its efforts to enact legislation regulating NGOs. The NGO law was signed by Putin in April 2006, which ensured the colour revolutions would not spread to Russian territory or any other former Soviet territory. The Kremlin as a counter-response to the colour revolutions reacted by establishing pro-Kremlin youth organizations aimed at garnering the political support of Russian youth in the former Soviet republics.

Whilst the struggle will continue between Russia’s resurgence on one hand and US attempts to push Russia all the way back to Russia proper there are number of lessons the Ummah can learn from Russia’s resurgence: 

  • – Russia to a large extent has used bribes and force to being all the former Soviet republics under its influence. In no way has Russia convinced the former Soviet Republics of a new way of life or attempted to absorb them into one nation or one people. This has the effect of creating a fragmented union, which can be easily penetrated form the outside. This was exactly how the US created friction in the former Soviet Union as the Eastern camp was semi-autonomous remaining nominally loyal to Moscow. The Muslim Ummah possesses the Islamic ideology and this is the gel that unifies different peoples, tribes and cultures. The Khilafah is a unitary state which turns different geographical lands into one state, with the same rights, one ruler and with all becoming the same citizens with the same rights.
  • – Russia has made it clear to the US that Eastern Europe and Central Asia are Russian territory and the US should respect that. Ever since, Putin has been working meticulously to bring the regions under the Kremlins authority. The ambition to be a world power and challenge the current superpower – the US is driving Russia’s rapid resurgence, development of its military industry and its aggressive attitude. However Russia’s global ambitions are largely nationalist and this means any attempt to go beyond the former Soviet territories will face serious hurdles as ethnic Russians do not exist in great numbers beyond Eastern Europe and central Asia. The issue for Russia is if you have global ambitions what will you take to the world? Russia has abandoned Communism and today has nothing to challenge Capitalism with, which is America’s chief export. The Ummah on the other hand lacks no ambition, even without the Khilafah Muslims globally through the internet spread the Islamic message. Many territories, where Islam, in the past never reached, today have sizable Muslim communities such as Latin America and Western Europe. Islamic history has shown that the global ambition of taking Islam to the rest of the world led the Sahabah to take Islam to North Africa; the Berbers from Egypt embraced Islam and within a matter of years travelled across the straights of Gibraltar to give Islam to Spain. Islam has a track record of uniting different people and eradicating sectarian differences and casts.
  • – The collapse of Communism and the subsequent chaos has created a Russia that has multiple problems. Russia all though quantitatively is on par with the US from a quality perspective it has an industry that is 20 years behind the US, its transport system needs massive investment and poverty still plagues many Russians. Russia’s current method of bringing law and order has been through an authoritarian central government and through spying on its own populace and assassinating unsavoury individuals. The problem with this approach is different problems are being dealt with through different approaches which will eventually create a contradiction in Russia. Putin has subdued those who have doubts about his vision, among his population, through his nationalist call, but nationalism will only solve a limited set of problems. Without an ideology Russia will find its biggest challenge is not the US, but actually comes from within. The Ummah posses the Islamic ideology which gives detailed rules on the economy, social system and ruling. In this way there would be no contradiction in legislation and solutions across the Islamic state, it will create harmony, direction and ensure the state moves in a unified direction. Islam in fact historically has been the central motivation that drove many innovative solutions to problems. In the realm of foreign policy Mu’awiyah drove forward the plan to create military bases across the Islamic lands which would act as supply lines to the Khilafah’s ships which he foresaw as essential to defeating the Byzantine Empire at sea.
  • – Russia’s major challenges are rapidly developing its military industry for which it has no shortage of mineral resources. Its challenge is largely technical, in terms of developing advanced technology, which will be more efficient in creating an image of strength. Russia also has a population in decline as many have avoided having children due to the unstable situation in the region since the collapse Communism. The Ummah has no such problems, the Muslim lands are full of all the key mineral resources such as oil and gas and the Ummah’s population in increasing, with nearly half the Ummah under the age of 30, this means the Ummah will have no shortage in its workforce which is essential for economic development and becoming a world power.

The Muslim Ummah has all the necessary prerequisites to change her situation and become a worlds power, nations such as Japan, Germany and Russia in the past have been in a much worse position than the Ummah and have been able to change their situation and challenge the worlds superpower. US intelligence has estimated the return of the Khilafah by 2020, all that is needed is for the Ummah is to show army general sitting in the Muslim world that is about time he fulfilled the destiny of the Ummah.