Q: What prompted Georgia to initiate attack on South Ossettia? Did it not anticipate a stong reaction from Russia? Where would this war lead to?
Answer: It is clear that the US has fanned the flames of war in Georgia because it was Georgia armed forces that launched the attack on South Ossetia and it is unlikely that Georgia would embark on a attack of such magnitude with the US green signal.
Therefore the Georgian assault was pre-planned and surprised Russia and it may well be the begining of a long-drawn war in the Caucasus with the Georgians and Ossetians fuelling it primarily. Russia on its part will not remain a silent spectator because if it does so, it stands to lose its hegemony in the region. It will also not give away sovereignty especially over South Ossetia to Georgia since an overwhelming majority of the regions 70,000 inhabitants are either Russians or are pro-Russia and hold Russian passports. These inhabitants regard their territory as a natural extention of the Northern Ossetia which is in Russia.
Georgians too will not easily give up South Ossetia because it is a part of their territory according to the official and international maps, on the other hand it intends to take revenge from the Ossetians who defeated the Georgians in the 1992 war and separated from it with the Russian backing and are a separate entity for the last 16 years. It is more likely that the war may spill over into the Abkhazian region which is even bigger than South Ossetia both in terms of geographical area and population which separated from Georgia in the same year.
The initial US statements in the aftermath of the attack clearly suggest that it supports Georgia in its venture. The US State Department spokesman Gonsalves Ghalighou said:“We are in touch with senior officials in Georgia and Russia“. He added,“We call upon Moscow to use pressure on the authorities in charge in Southern Ossetia to cease fire“. Here he regards the separatists‘ leadesrship as the de facto leadership, in another statement a US adminstration official said that“the solution to the South Ossetian conflict must focus upon unity of the Georgian territories“, in reference to uniting the southern Ossetian region with Georgia.
As for Russia, after the separation of Kosovo from Serbia, it has warned that its reaction on the issue would be to separate southern Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia and their independence. Some observers see Georgi’s entry into the NATO linked to the solution to the southern Ossetian and the Abkhazian conflict. The Georgian President Saakshivli appears to be in a hurry to join the NATO alliance and has therefore ventured this attack being assured of American support to prevent Russia from interfering in his country’s internal affairs and to develop his country to the levels enjoyed by the Baltic countries like Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia which are completely free from any Russian interference. However, it is unlikely that Russia and Georgia will reach a final settlement, especially the Gerogians have waited long for a solution. The Russians on the other hand consider the issue as their regional one and do not imagine giving up on the separatists. Therefore most solution appears to be a soldiers‘ respite cease fire and not a final solution.
Indeed the United States is likely to be primary beneficiary and has nothing to lose, because this conflict is likely to remain atleast for the time being a thorn in the Russian flesh draining much of its energies and engaging it for a long time at the cost of other issues.
10th Sha’ban, 1429 A.H
9th August, 2008 C.E