Asia

Political Analysis: Kyrgyzstan Revolution – Russia’s resurgence continues

Kyrgyzstan has now become the latest addition to Russia’s continued revival as it continues to roll back the territories that were lost when the Soviet Union collapsed over two decades ago. In our Strategic Estimate 2010 Khilafah.com said:

“2010 will be a year of consolidation for Russia. It has taken full advantage of America’s preoccupation with the Islamic world to reverse all the American sponsored colour revolutions. The project to bring all of the former Soviet republics under Russian influence has been a meticulous task led by Vladimir Putin. In 2010 Russia will make significant gains in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Azerbaijan and should have removed what remains of Western influence. The reformulation of a political union in much of the former Soviet space should have begun.”

In the Ukraine elections of February 2010 Russia brought a pro-Russian leader to power and now, in Kyrgyzstan, the Colour revolution president has been removed through a popular uprising. On Wednesday 7th April 2010 protests quickly turned into riots, followed by a seizure and then the ousting of the government, followed by the installation of a replacement government set to take control, all in less than 24-hour hours. This was a highly organised series of events. 

Whilst the current revolution has not been given a name, colour or symbol the unrest has been brewing for months, fuelled by an energy crisis and government crackdowns on the opposition.
President Bakiyev came to power in the 2007 Tulip Revolution, Bakiyev’s rise was part of a series of colour revolutions orchestrated by the US through NGO’s that swept cross the former Soviet republics bringing pro-Western rulers to power. A wave of optimism swept across the small Central Asian nation which is the also the poorest in the region. Bakiyev promised to rid the nation of corruption, stimulate the economy and eradicate poverty. However none of this materialised. Bakiyev’s term in office was characterised with the murder of prominent politicians, prison riots, economic collapse, and with Bakiyev cronies battling for control of lucrative businesses.

Many from the opposition movement, now part of the interim government, had been in power with Bakiyev until he began purging his government in October 2009 in order to consolidate his grip on power. The purged individuals, most of whom belonged to the Social Democrats and United People’s Movement, eventually joined forces with other opposition groups such as Temir Sariev of the Ak-Shumkar Party and Omurbek Tekebayev in order to spearhead nationwide protests due to the country’s economic and electricity crisis. The leaders of both parties that comprise the opposition Almaz Atambaev and Roza Otunbayeva (now leader of the opposition interim government) lost out in the power struggle that took place after the Tulip revolution, whilst Temir Sariev of the Ak-Shumkar Party visited Moscow and met Putin only the day before the revolution and confirmed in a speech that Putin pledged support for Kyrgyzstan’s opposition.

A senior Russian diplomat told the Russian Newspaper Kommersant that the developments in Kyrgyzstan did not take Russia by surprise. “This outcome was predictable. It actually was predicted,” he admitted. “It is only the swiftness that is surprising.” The deputy head of the interim government, Almaz Atambayev, flew out to Moscow the day after the events in Bishkek to talk with Russian government officials. Russia seems to be aiding the new leaders in Bishkek on finding the best way to orchestrate a legitimate transfer of power to the interim government, and pressured Bakiev to resign voluntarily.

The transition of power all took place smoothly. The organised opposition government, was already pre-arranged and finalised and stood ready to take the former government’s place. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was quick to endorse the new government and condemned Bakiyev for his failed policies that contributed to his unpopularity.

The Colour revolutions have failed the region and now have all been reversed, with Georgia the only nation with a colour revolution inspired ruler. Central Asia since the collapse of the Soviet Union has been at the centre of a global struggle between the US and Russia over the region. Whilst the US inspired colour revolutions removed Russian influence, US agents have done nothing to change the status quo for their people. Russia on the other hand is attempting to gather back its former republics and has now brought a pro-Russian leadership to the helm in Kyrgyzstan.

As Russia continues to expand its influence outside its borders, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Georgia remain essential to its plan to become a major power again. These nations give Moscow access to the Black and Caspian seas, they are also all interlinked and integrated with Russia’s industrial and agricultural heartland. Of those four countries, the first three are already under Russian control. The last one, Georgia, will be the centre of Russia’s attention until it again comes under Russian control. With the US preoccupied with Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan, it has been unable to consolidate its influence in the nations where it orchestrated the infamous colour revolutions. With the draw down in Iraq likely some time near the end of 2010 depending upon the circumstances, this leaves Russia with a window of opportunity to consolidate its position in it’s near abroad before the US begins to deploy resources to contain Russia’s expansion.

Russia will continue to tailor its resurgence into each country of its former republics according to the country’s circumstances. This will be a long and meticulous task and this shows that Russia has learnt that there is no one-size-fits-all plan for its former Soviet republics. Russia cannot simply wage war with each country as it did during the days of the Soviet Union and as it did with Georgia, or cut off energy supplies like in Lithuania, set up a democratically elected government like in Ukraine or overthrow the government as in Kyrgyzstan. Russia will tailor the type of influences it uses to each country it wants to control.

For the People of Kyrgyzstan and Central Asia, their fortunes are very unlikely to change. This is because whether change with America’s stars and strips or Russia’s red and white colours; the region is set to a battle ground for the two powers, irrespective of their wishes.