The bloodbath unleashed by Musharraf's forces at the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad has shown just how far he is prepared to go to achieve his aims. Amidst claim and counter claim from the regime in the aftermath of 'Operation Silence', it is beginning to emerge that hundreds, including women and children, may have been killed in the bloody assault. It is rumoured that Musharraf himself rejected a possible deal at the last moment that could have led to a peaceful outcome and instead ordered the assault. What is known is that Abdul Rashid Ghazi, one of the two brothers who led the Red Mosque, were killed.
It is well known that the Red Mosque had extensive links with elements of the establishment. ISI officials have in the past been closely connected with the seminary, links that were forged during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The question that arises is how has it been possible for the Mosque students to go virtually unchallenged in the last 6 months on the streets of Islamabad? In their self styled campaign they targeted alleged prostitutes and music shops. Yet the obvious question is how has this been possible right under the noses of Musharraf's regime, an area where the National Assembly, Supreme Court and Musharraf's Presidential Palace itself is closely situated nearby? How were these students in the Red Mosque allowed to build up such an alleged large arsenal of weapons without been detected?
Musharraf has tried to justify the operation by saying that he wanted a peaceful outcome and avoid large-scale casualties, particularly with such a large number of women and children being involved. However his real intention was made evident when on 29th June he said to journalists "Can you guarantee that blood of any dead or injured will not be screened on television channels during the operation?" If the regime really wanted a peaceful outcome all it had to do was wait after cutting off all gas, electricity and food supplies to the compound. The recent past shows that Musharraf has always used military force in such situations where he has been confronted by opponents, whether Islamic or Nationalistic. The lessons of Nawab Akbar Bugti, the Balochi rebels and the operations in the tribal areas of Waziristan show this to be true. Indeed in the past Musharraf has unashamedly said, "If someone happens to be very close to [the target], that somebody is an abetter and they suffer the loss. Sometimes, indeed, women and children have been killed but they have been right next to the place. It's not that the strike was inaccurate but they happen to be there, so therefore they are all supporters and abetters of terrorism – and therefore they have to suffer. It's bad luck."
The regime repeatedly alleged that there were 'hundreds' of fighters including suicide bombers inside as well being heavily armed with all sorts of light weaponry. Independent observes though estimated that at least over a thousand students were still inside the Red Mosque compound at the time of the assault, mostly women and children. Musharraf further alleged that highly wanted foreign terrorists were amongst the students. But by the regime's own admission only about 80 alleged fighters have been killed. It remains unclear how many women and children were rescued, if at all. No bodies have been produced thus far to substantiate the claim that foreign fighters were indeed amongst the dead. Moreover only 11 Pakistani commandos died in the operation. How could this be possible if the militants were so heavily armed and prepared for suicide bombings? Ghazi claimed in his final phone interview they only had 14 AK-47s to defend themselves. If Musharraf's claims were true there should have been many more deaths amongst his troops.
The other possible part of the explanation of why casualties were so low amongst the security forces is that they indiscriminately attacked everyone inside the Red Mosque to minimise their own losses. With the world's media gazing on, an air strike would have been political suicide. They had to be seen to be trying to save lives. Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz claimed that not a single woman or child died but as details emerge reports suggest otherwise. Indeed there are reports of mass graves being dug to quickly bury the dead with hundreds of students including women and children being killed with many more unaccounted for. With the media being denied access to the Mosque in the aftermath no one can believe the carefully choreographed footage shown on state television by a regime which has every motive to hide the number killed. The only question that remains is why Musharraf chose to wait so long whilst a surreal situation developed on the streets of Islamabad.
One can begin to see why and the real motives at play when one evaluates the wider picture for Musharraf's actions. The whole issue began when Musharraf's regime demolished six mosques it claimed were built illegally on government land prompting girls from the adjoined Jamia Hafsa to occupy a library at the beginning of this year. It is not hard to see how the regime easily goaded the Red Mosque. Musharraf needed a distraction as the political opposition continued to build momentum opposing his bid to be re-elected to the Presidency using the current National and Provincial assemblies as expected later this year. Musharraf is desperate to hang on to both the Presidency and the Chief of Army Staff post, his real source of power. Rather than taking the risk of relying upon new assemblies, Musharraf seeks a new 5-year term rubber stamped by the current assemblies.
The opposition snowballed with Musharraf's clumsy attempted dismissal of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Iftikhar Chaudary, who he tried to remove unceremoniously so that a more pliant lackey would negate any legal challenges to his re-election. Chaudary's unprecedented opposition to Musharraf has created a crisis, which has sent him reeling. In recent months the opposition has cleverly exploited the issue built around Chaudary, which has seen thousands taking to the streets of Pakistan, all opposed to Musharraf. This culminated with the pro-Musharraf MQM clashing with opposition supporters on the streets of Karachi on May 12th 2007 where Chaudary was due to address a rally. Dozens of people were shot dead and many more injured. With Geo and Aaj Television studios also being attacked, Musharraf has tried to intimidate and silence the media from reporting on recent events. It is no coincidence that he deployed 12,000 security personnel around Islamabad, a grotesque overkill designed in reality to prevent any kind of political protests.
In the next few weeks the Supreme Court is due to rule on the suspension of the Chief Justice, which has thrown out evidence from Musharraf's lawyers. Together with this backdrop and his regime's abysmal response to the recent Balochistan floods, Musharraf is under severe pressure to do something to save his skin, which he literally described as his army uniform. This pressure was further amplified with the political opposition massing in London for an 'All Parties Conference' (APC) in which all the major opposition leaders from 38 parties attended, apart from Benazir Bhutto, who sent her deputy Makhdoom Amin Fahim instead for the PPP.
Musharraf has always sought to divide the opposition. It was no small achievement to see so many disparate groups come together. The APC agreed that if Musharraf tries to have himself re-elected before holding new elections they would all resign on masse from the Senate and Assemblies. All agreed apart from Bhutto's PPP, which said it will consider it's position at such a time. With the attack on the Red Mosque Musharraf has clearly hoped it will help break the momentum of the opposition, divert attention away from the APC and reinvigorate his position in the West as ‘bulwark' against ‘Islamic Extremism'. Musharraf's objective is clear; he wants to hold on to power at any cost.
This is not the only pressure Musharraf is facing. The recent book by Dr Ayesha Siddiqa, Military Inc, has only brought more scrutiny on the actions of his regime. The book revealed how the top tier of Musharraf's handpicked officers are more busy making money in business enterprises and sinecures rather then focusing on defending the country. Where Musharraf has deployed his troops, it has been to placate his western masters. Musharraf has deployed more than 80,000 Pakistani troops in the tribal areas to aid America's 'War on Terror'.
Musharraf's chosen course has serious implications for Pakistan and marks a watershed in his dictatorship. His operations in Waziristan and Balochistan before were relatively out of sight; the Red Mosque attack was covered live on TV. Musharraf has clearly signalled that he is ready to spill blood and wants everyone in Pakistan, his opponents in particular, to understand this. Whether this intent is a bluff or not, Musharraf actions are only likely to provide him short-term relief. As in the case of the Chief Justice, many Pakistanis will see thorough Musharraf's scheming as the true picture emerges behind the Red Mosque massacre. Many will be understandably distraught throughout the country including the NWFP and the tribal heartlands. Inevitably there can only be more bloodshed in Pakistan, as some will choose violence to retaliate.
Musharraf's myopic policies, not withstanding their heinous nature, have set the scene for a violent backlash, raising the spectre of civil war. Already nearly 70 Pakistani troops have been killed in a suicide bomb attacks, 24 in one alone. Whilst many fear these consequences, Musharraf himself may have concluded this and may actually even be hoping that this is the case. As opposition to him reaches unprecedented levels, further violence creates the perfect pretext to postpone elections indefinitely by declaring a state of emergency, effectively martial law. At a stroke Musharraf will have secured his power.
However such a strategy is flawed. This will no doubt tempt Musharraf. But his western backers are more realistic and understand that their ‘man' may not last much longer. The Carnegie Endowment for International for Peace, an American think tank, has argued for all kinds of pressure to be applied on Musharraf to ditch his position of Army Chief. This is why the West has supported Musharraf's secret negotiations with Bhutto, perhaps the worst kept secret in Pakistan. A deal with Bhutto they believe will allow Musharraf to dump the religious parties of the MMA he has relied upon and use the PPP to lend a veneer of acceptable secular legitimacy to Musharraf's dictatorship. But a deal with Bhutto would not be without cost as inevitably she would seek to increase her own power at the expense of Musharraf's, in return for her party's support. More importantly Bhutto would hold little currency with many Pakistanis because of her past corrupt rule, such is her discredited character. Musharraf is damned whatever path he chooses.
But beyond Musharraf himself there are potentially graver perils on the horizon as he has opened a Pandora's box. A serious situation is developing in the northern area of Swat as Musharraf has dispatched another 10-20,000 troops to confront pro-Taliban forces. Just before the Red Mosque raid it is reported that Musharraf had agreed to give America and NATO permission to attack any target inside Pakistan itself. This Red Mosque raid may now provide a further pretext for such an eventuality and in fact may be the raison d'etre.
NATO and American forces have struggled to contain the Pushtun led rebellion to their occupation of Afghanistan, which has only multiplied. American and NATO forces have been itching to bomb the tribal regions of Pakistan who they accuse of aiding their ethnic and tribal brethren in Afghanistan. Whilst Musharraf's Generals are occupied with crony capitalism, their cowardness has been exposed by the utter subservience to America and the West. Just two weeks before the Red Mosque siege climax NATO forces shelled and injured 6 Pakistani troops amongst others. Musharraf has shown that he is unwilling to stand up for his own people when needed but is more than ready to spill their blood at the behest of his masters in Washington.
America's discomfort over the Afghanistan resistance has been exasperated by the ‘peace' deals Musharraf's regime signed with rebels in Waziristan nearly two years ago. These deals have been repeatedly denounced by western politicians as a sign of Musharraf being soft in the ‘War on Terror'. Musharraf, under pressure from within the Pakistan army, had good reason to sign these deals because the army was suffering heavy losses at the time; more than 700 soldiers had been killed. As predictable, the rebels in Waziristan have now announced in the aftermath of the Red Mosque raid that these deals no longer exist. Musharraf it seems has orchestrated this whole Red Mosque drama under pressure from Washington. Days before the Red Mosque raid a story in the New York Times claimed a large American operation to target the tribal regions in Waziristan was aborted in 2005 because Musharraf would not agree to it due to the inevitable domestic political fallout. It's almost certain that America must have known in advance the Red Mosque raid would take place. The message is clear, such ‘weakness' on the part of Musharraf is no longer acceptable and is designed to pave the way forward.
Musharraf may now claim that NATO and American forces are needed to fight ‘Islamic extremists' and justify their entry into Pakistan. Whilst America may bomb at will, the old enemy India will be relishing events unfolding inside Pakistan. The militant groups, which have been such a thorn for India since the 1990s, will now be pitted against their previous masters, the Pakistan army. Never since the crisis of 1971, which led to East Pakistan breaking away to form Bangladesh, has Pakistan faced a graver crisis. Internally weakened Pakistan's very integrity now lies at stake.
The West has once again proven it's hypocrisy by backing a brutal dictator for it's interests. Even after the wanton spilling of so much blood they have been full of nothing but praise for their man. In Musharraf's case he is integral to the occupation of Afghanistan, the gateway to the oil and gas riches of Central Asia. With Pakistan being strategically located, it has become ever more important to deal with China and a resurgent Russia that are increasingly coordinating their opposition to the West.
The tragedy is that Pakistan is indispensable for America in her war in Afghanistan. That is why America continues to shower all kinds of aid upon Musharraf and his regime. America has given $10 billion since September 2001. Just before the Red Mosque assault, in a bid to shore up their agent, America handed over two F-16s flown in personally by a US Air force General. Emboldened by the carnage at the Red Mosque Musharraf declared t that "Extremism and terrorism will be defeated in every corner of the country".
The Red Mosque episode will go down as a decisive moment in Pakistan's turbulent history. As British military chiefs fear ‘regime change', there can only be two paths for Pakistan now; gradual disintegration or honour with the restoration of the Khilafah. In the past Musharraf has abandoned the Muslims of Afghanistan, implicated and humiliated Dr A.Q Khan in alleged nuclear proliferation, abandoned Pakistan's traditional position on Kashmir and voiced strong support for the recognition of Israel. Now he is turning Pakistan's army against it own people. Musharraf is the very opposite of what ordinary Pakistanis stand for. Musharraf has shown that he has truly joined the ranks of great tyrants, like Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov and the atrocity in Andijan in 2005, with his brutal Red Mosque massacre. But Allah (SWT) is watcher over all things and surely Musharraf will face his reckoning on the Day of Judgment when he meets his creator. For as Allah (SWT) says in the Quran:
"On the Day when every soul will find itself confronted with all that it hath done of good and all that it hath done of evil (every soul) will long that there might be a mighty space of distance between it and that (evil)."
[Surah Al-Imran 3:30]