On the eve of the 21st century the US was the world’s foremost power, with the collapse of the Soviet Union 10 years earlier the US faced very little challenge from any other nation and was considered to have achieved full spectrum dominance. There was no longer any meaningful dispute between Marxism and the market. It looked as though Western liberal democracy was becoming ‘the final form of human government’. This led to the arrogant Neoconservatives developing policies to ensure such a scenario continued into the foreseeable future. It was this climate that led to many observers to accept unrivalled US supremacy and invincibility. However a decade on, this could not be further from the truth. An astute observation of the global balance of power and US foreign policy suggests a faltering US.
America has slowly bled to death from two open wounds in Iraq and Afghanistan that show no signs of abating. Both wars have now lasted longer than WW2. The US army, the most technologically advanced in history has been unable to defeat groups of mujahideen with the most basic of military training, using weapons developed in the 1960’s. As a result the US has to rely on regional nations to avoid embarrassment. The US has enlisted Syrian and Iranian assistance via back door channels to maintain stability. It is through Iran that stability has come to the South of Iraq and this has been achieved through two Ayatollahs from Iran – Ayatollah Sistani and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim the leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution (SCIR). Abdul al-Aziz Hakim has 10,000 soldiers at his disposal and has aggressively pushed for federalism for the southern regions, calling for nine provinces to merge. Hakim’s declaration for greater Shi’ite autonomy coincides with the US plan of the dissolution of Iraq. This was the primary reason the Baker-Hamilton report called for the engagement of Iran and Syria because Iran specifically is the home for Southern Iraq loyalty.
It is Iran who has maintained stability in Northern and Western Afghanistan which borders Iran and has prevented the Pushtun resistance from expanding into such areas which has helped the US. Tehran has achieved this by carrying out a number of reconstruction projects which has allowed NATO to work on a much smaller area of resistance. Iran was a key factor in the overthrow of the Taliban and has built roads, power transmission lines, and border stations, among other infrastructure projects.
Colonel Christopher Langton, who heads the defense analysis department at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said Iran is an important country in the future reconstruction and development of Afghanistan, “They are being closely linked by efforts against the Taliban in the past, but also because of the influence that Iran can bring there with the Hazara population [who, like Iranians, are Shi’a Muslims]. And in the development sector, there are already projects which Iran is involved in — for instance, the road from Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf up through Afghanistan to Central Asia is a very, very important project for the future of Afghanistan…There is a whole list of political, economic, and security issues which connect Afghanistan and Iran.”[1]
This prompted Richard Hass the head of the most powerful US think tank to comment: “the age of US dominance in the Middle East has ended and a new era in the modern history of the region has begun. It will be shaped by new actors and new forces competing for influence, and to master it, Washington will have to rely more on diplomacy than on military might.”[2]
The US is facing numerous challenges in regions of the world which only a decade ago it completely dominated. In the Middle East apart from needing the help of regional surrogates the Middle East is gradually shifting from being a uni-polar region in which the US enjoys uncontested hegemony to a multi-polar region. The US is facing more competition from China and Russia over access to Middle East oil. The US is now increasingly competing with India and Japan as well as the European Union for the lion’s share of the regions black gold. Britain has also managed to foil American projects under the guise of partnership and co-operation. Graham Fuller former vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council described America’s predicament when he wrote in the issue of the National Interest, “diverse countries have deployed a multiplicity of strategies and tactics designed to weaken, divert, alter, complicate, limit delay or block the Bush agenda through death by a thousand cuts.”[3]
Britain under Tony Blair’s tenure thwarted America’s bid to oust President Kabbah of Sierra Leone and worked diligently to rescue Gaddafi’s government from clutches of American neoconservatives who after September 11 wanted regime change in Libya. In Sudan the US has been unable to separate Southern Sudan due to the Darfur crisis which has been used by France and Britain to interfere in Sudan. In South Africa Blair competed tirelessly with the US to protect British influence and made the country the mainstay of anti-government activities in neighbouring African countries. The US is also facing the prospect of being left out to dry as China has taken leadership on African development by completing over 100 deals, worth over $20 billion, to secure a stable supply of oil.
In the Subcontinent US dominance has been stifled as Britain reasserted its influence over India through the ascendancy of the Congress Party in 2004. The defeat of the pro-American Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was a severe blow to American interests. In Pakistan the US was forced to share power with Britain to salvage the declining popularity of General Musharraf.
Russia and China are rapidly developing without following the example of Western liberal democracy. However, it is Russia, which over the last year has opted to openly challenge the West as well as the US at practically every turn, whether by planting a flag on the seabed beneath the Arctic icecap, testing the massive ordnance air blast bomb or disputing the sitting of US early-warning defence systems in eastern Europe. Russia has begun re-inventing itself as a regional power, after winning back Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan from American grip and managing to stop the influence of the three revolutions in central Asia. The US after nearly 20 years of having no rival is now facing the grim prospect of a challenge from a nation with the world’s largest gas reserves and substantial oil reserves.
The US is also losing its grip on Latin America which it essentially turned into its back yard since the time of the Monroe declaration in 1823. America prevented all the European states from interfering in the American continent, and from threatening the interests of the US. Due to US hegemony, Latin America remained outside the grip of European imperialism.
However with the elections of new governments in Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia, Chile and Nicaragua, the US for the first time is facing the threat of independent governments who are following an independent agenda separate to Washington. Nations such as Venezuela, Brazil and Bolivia have nationalised key utilities and have developed an alternative to US dominated institutions such as the IMF and World Bank to their own version – Bank of the South. After nearly 200 years the US is finding its hegemony being openly challenged by popular independent leaders in the American continent.
The US is also losing its grip on its economic hegemony which it developed from the day it entered WW2. The American economy used to be the world’s powerhouse, but today it is being left behind by emerging economies. It stands in third place now behind China and India in economic growth. This problem is further compounded by America’s continued demand for greater oil. America’s biggest threat economically comes from China and already both nations have a complex relationship. US companies are eager to tap into the 1.5 billion Chinese population, whilst at the same time 70% of Chinese goods end up on US shores. China has benefited more from this relationship than the US by accumulating over $1.2 trillion in dollar reserves. Domestic US companies on the other hand are unable to match Chinese low prices for quality workmanship and this has contributed to the US trade deficit to balloon to nearly $1 trillion. The US funds this by issuing treasury bonds which China is the world’s largest purchaser of after Japan at $502 billion, 20% of total US foreign debt. Added to this is that the very economic boom America is benefiting from is increasing demand for oil by China. The relationship between the two is interdependent which the US does not have full control over and cannot easily dictate terms.
The debacle of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars has severely dented US prowess around the world. The US rather than being invincible has been exposed of being ever more reliant upon others and is drowning in a sea of misery domestically. FBI statistics highlighted in 2005 show that a crime was committed every 22 seconds in the US, with a murder committed every 31 minutes, a rape every 5 minutes and a robbery every minute.[4]
The US is faltering from the position it held a decade ago. The global financial crisis has compounded this problem further as the US may not be able to fund its empire. The US is being challenged in regions of the world that it dominated only a decade ago. Whilst the gap between the US and its challengers – Russia and China, is still huge, both former communist states are offering little in the way of alternatives. Whilst the US is finding its days of empire eroding, only the emergence of the Khilafah that offers an alternative can the world be saved from US and Capitalist domination.
The Messenger of Allah صلى الله عليه وسلم said, “Indeed Allah gathered up the earth for me so that I saw its eastern and western parts, and indeed the dominion of my Ummah will reach what was gathered up for me from it.” [Muslim]
[1] Golnaz Esfandiari, Afghanistan/Iran: Relations Between Tehran, Kabul Growing Stronger, http://www.parstimes.com/news/archive/2005/rfe/afghanistan_iran_relations.html
[2] Richard Haas, ‘The new Middle East,’ Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20061101faessay85601/richard-n-haass/the-new-middle-east.html
[3] http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/11/21/news/assess.php
[4] FBI crime clock, 2005, http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/about/crime_clock.html