BOOK: Strategic Estimate 2011

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Strategic Estimate 2011 is the second annual assessment of the global balance of power by Our assessment focuses on the global trends, the emerging trends and the developments that have taken shape during the year between the world’s powers. We also give our assessment on what is likely to occur in 2011 based on the current international situation.

We concluded in our 2010 assessment that the US remained the world’s superpower, however it had been over-stretched in both the wars it was engaged in after the events of 9/11, this led to a number of nations taking a more confident and in some cases a confrontational approach to the US in the different regions of the world.

In 2010, the US worked to extricate itself from the Iraq and Afghan wars which depleted her resources and undermined her prowess. Troop levels in Iraq became synonymous with success to the US public. The US attempted to pursue the same policy in Afghanistan, but found the conditions much different to the fertile ground it found in Iraq. 2010 saw the world’s superpower consumed with attempting to disengage from foreign policy ambitions that were undertaken at the beginning of the 21st century.

The major development in 2010 was the successful expansion of Russian influence in its periphery. With the US marred in two wars Russia for the last decade has been working to reverse US attempts through NATO and the European Union expansion in bringing the former Soviet republic under its influence. Russia in 2010 worked to end the colour revolutions instigated by the US in order to expand its influence beyond its immediate territory.

The global economy at the end of 2009 was coming out of recession and had averted global economic collapse. The trillions spent on stimulus plans and quantitative easing (the printing of money) ensured this, however this money was meant to kick start economic growth. The quest for economic growth characterised the global economy in 2010.

2010 also saw the rise of Turkey as a regional player. In this report we asses Turkey’s foreign policy positions and analyse its trajectory and ask the question if Turkey is an independent power?

What follows’ inshallah is the author’s opinion and assessment of 2010 and the trends for 2011 and beyond. Like any assessment, they are merely estimates and forecasts; as global politics is always in a state of flux such an assessment will never remain static.

26th Muharram 1432
1st January 2011
Adnan Khan