“As much as official Washington hopes it can muddle through Egypt’s prolonged transition with its interests intact, the American position in Egypt will change and it will wane.” — Steven A. Cook
In the aftermath of Morsi’s ouster, three issues were widely debated namely: the coup instigated by the US and executed by General el-Sisi, failure of political Islam during Morsi’s tenure in office and what it means for the region, and the dismal failure of the Tamarod movement— in particular— and the opposition in general to articulate a thought provoking vision in the post-Morsi era. As for those who subscribe to the notion that remnants of Mubarak’s regime can do better than the Brotherhood or the opposition, they are equally mistaken. There is another topic, however, that has got a brief mention—the waning of American influence in
Ever since Gamal Abdul Nasser rose to the forefront of Egyptian politics in the 1950s, America’s political fortunes in the Middle East changed for the better.
It was not until the huge protests against Mubarak in 2011 that America’s hegemony in Egypt began to waiver. The political awakening of the middle class and their zeal to rule by Islam forced America to rethink its political calculus; Washington was eventually forced to cut a deal with the Muslim Brotherhood in exchange for protection of American interests and stability for its rule. Morsi and the Brotherhood were integrated with the parts of Mubarak’s old regime and the new political configuration worked under the watchful eye of the army.
Under this new political arrangement, public sentiments were mollified and it seemed America had found a second wind—there was no real challenge to American interests. The
But the protection of American interests necessitates political stability, and this is where Morsi and America failed in spectacular fashion. Morsi inflamed the Egyptian public through his unstinting support for American policies, share incompetence and an authoritarian style—reminiscent of the Mubarak days. The fragmented opposition capitalised on this groundswell of anti-Morsi feeling, which in a short space of time had captured the hearts and minds of secular Egyptians as well as the vast majority of practicing believers. It was the latter segment that had propelled Morsi’s Freedom and Justice Party to the fore of Egyptian politics only a year ago. Now this segment had turned against him and called for his removal.
If America was somehow able to cobble together a government consisting of Mubarak misfits, neoliberal technocrats, sprinkled with novices like Elbaradei or similar personalities, then one is compelled to ask—what will become of Egypt. Well! One has to look no further than
With such a dismal track record, the situation in Egypt will not improve and is likely to descend into chaos, and join the ranks of America’s political failures. In sum, America is no longer the super power it used to be, and it is rapidly losing primacy and legitimacy in the Muslim world. Could Egypt prove to be the straw the broke the super power
Abed Mostapha